Stefanos Tsitsipas is the underdog against Novak Djokovic in Friday’s French Open semifinal. (Photo by Speed Media/Icon Sportswire)

  • Rafael Nadal remains the favorite to win the French Open men’s singles title at +105, but Novak Djokovic is right behind him at +125.
  • In his 13th Grand Slam main draw, Stefanos Tsitsipas reaches his second career semifinal.
  • Can Tsitsipas upset Djokovic in Friday’s semifinal? See odds, analysis, and our best bet below

Most are expecting top seeds Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal to meet for the 56th time in Sunday’s  French Open men’s singles final.

However, given the drama and physical issues surrounding Djokovic’s quarterfinal against Pablo Carreño Busta on Wednesday, is that still a given?

Novak Djokovic vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) -4.5 (-129) -315 O 38.5 (-113)
[5] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) +4.5 (+102) +245 U 38.5 (-112)

Odds taken Oct. 8 at DraftKings

Tsitsipas Doing the Expected

Tsitsipas’s path to the semis was cleared after the draw when he avoided the top three seeds as potential quarterfinal opponents. Instead, he got No. 4 Daniil Medvedev, who didn’t make it out of the first round.

His only hiccup was in his very first match against Jaume Muñar.

After playing the final at the Hamburg ATP Tour stop, Tsitsipas had to turn around two days later and play his first-round match in Paris.

He lost the first two sets against Jaume Muñar of Spain. Since then, Tsitsipas has won 15 consecutive sets. The Greek native is just 22-years-old. He’s as fresh as he can be at this stage.

Djokovic Physical Issues = Drama

During the warmup for his quarterfinal match, the 33-year-old Djokovic needed some treatment for a neck issue that also was an issue last month at the US Open.

The world No. 1 arrived on court Wednesday with a wide swath of tape up the right side of his neck.

He lost the first set, and his temper flared as he lashed out to his camp of supporters. He yelled at the ball kids to get him the balls more quickly.

Djokovic also needed on-court treatment on his left arm.

But unlike the drama in New York, Djokovic fashioned a better ending against Carreño Busta as he won going away, 4-6, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4.

His physical situation improved with the adrenaline and once his body warmed up.

“I had some neck issues and some shoulder issues. I’ll just say that. I mean, I don’t want to get really too much into it. Obviously I’m still in the tournament, so I don’t want to reveal too much,” Djokovic told the media afterwards. “I’m feeling okay. I think, as I said, as the match progressed, I warmed up my body, and the pain kind of faded away.”

Look for Djokovic to start slowly again; those types of problems don’t magically disappear in 48 hours.

Still, Carreño Busta – not usually a controversial type – wasn’t buying it.

“Probably the last years he’s always doing this when he has problems on court. I don’t know, maybe it’s the pressure or something that he needs to do it,” he said after the loss. “But, I mean, he continues playing normal, no? I don’t know if he’s pain really or he has mental. Ask him.”

Call Djokovic’s physical state the wild card in this one.

Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Head to Head

33 (May 22, 1987) Age 22 (Aug. 12, 1998)
Belgrade, Serbia Birthplace Athens, Greece
6-2 Height 6-4
81 ATP Singles Titles 5
17 Grand Slam Singles Titles 0
No. 1 Current Ranking No. 6
No. 1 (July 4, 2011) Career High Ranking No. 5 (Aug. 5, 2019)
$144,159,599 Career Prize Money $11,650,067
3 Head-to-Head 2

Tsitsipas has More Tools to Trouble Djokovic

Tsitsipas will struggle to keep up with the maestro from the baseline. Yet, unlike Carreño Busta, he does have options. Despite being 6’4″, he’s swift enough to run down the drop shots that have been Djokovic’s stock shot this tournament.

Tsitsipas also has two wins in five previous meetings with Djokovic to draw upon, although in the best-of-three set format. The victories came on two of the faster hard-court surfaces in Montreal and Shanghai.

They have played just once on clay, in the Madrid final last year. Djokovic won 6-3, 6-4.

Djokovic Health the Wild Card

Tsitsipas is facing a world No. 1 at a Grand Slam for the first time. He has a 1-6 win-loss record against No. 1- ranked players on the ATP  circuit (that one win was the one over Djokovic in Shanghai).

Unless the Serb comes on court visibly hampered and doesn’t improve the way he did against Carreño Busta, he should win.

Tsitsipas at +170 to win the first set is a good play. Djokovic to win in four sets (+270) is also a good bet.

Anything over 39.5 total games has odds in the plus. Even if the match is four close sets and doesn’t go the distance, that’s a winner.

Pick: Djokovic in Four Sets (+270) 

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