Jun 26, 2022; Cromwell, Connecticut, USA; Webb Simpson plays a shot from a fairway bunker on the 12th hole during the final round of the Travelers Championship golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
- The John Deere Classic from TPC Deere Run in Silvis, IL tees off Thursday, June 30th
- Adam Hadwin is the +2500 favorite to be atop the leaderboard after day one
- See the best bets and odds to grab the first-round lead in the article below
The PGA Tour heads to Silvis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic, and unlike the last few events, the field isn’t particularly strong – nobody in the top-50 in the world rankings is teeing it up. Adam Hadwin is the favorite to claim the title, followed by Webb Simpson. The players will need to shoot low scores to thrive at TPC Deere Run, with the last twelve winners all shooting at least 16-under-par en route to the title.
With there not being top ranked golfers competing this week, that allows for plenty of opportunities for John Deere Classic sleepers and longshots to make some noise.
In this article, we’ll explore which players have the best chance of being the leader after day one, along with which players have been fast starters on Thursdays this season.
2022 John Deere Classic First-Round Leader Odds
|Charles Howell III||+3500||12:54pm|
Odds as of June 28th at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The forecast calls for it to be mainly sunny throughout the day. Temperatures will be in the low 70’s for those starting in the morning, reaching low 90’s for the afternoon wave. Wind gusts will be pretty commonplace, with it being slightly more docile around 18 miles per hour in the AM compared to mid 20’s in the afternoon.
A benefit for those teeing it up in the morning is the exact same as it is every week – less bumpy greens with fewer players chewing them up.
Webb Simpson the Top Ranked Golfer
You have to go all the way to 58th in the world rankings before you see a golfer teeing it up this week – and that is Webb Simpson (12:43pm tee time). The seven-time PGA Tour winner certainly has much more pedigree than the contemporaries he’s up against, and he comes in with three top-30’s in his last four starts.
Of those playing, Simpson is tied for the second best scoring average in the first round, where he’s shot in the 60’s in five of his last six Thursday’s.
2021-22 PGA Tour First Round Scoring Average Leaders
|10. William McGirt||68.85||+14000|
|T-14. Webb Simpson||69.00||+3500|
|T-14. Jonathan Byrd||69.00||+13000|
|23. Patton Kizzire||69.23||+7500|
|32. Denny McCarthy||69.39||+3500|
|33. Charles Howell III||69.40||+3500|
|40. Adam Long||69.52||+4500|
|41. Rory Sabbatini||69.57||+10000|
|T-44. Sahith Theegala||69.63||+4500|
|T-44. Bill Haas||69.63||+13000|
Simpson is fifth in both strokes gained: ball striking and tee-to-green in the last twelve rounds, and he’s seventh in total strokes gained. The past U.S. Open and Players Champion is first in total strokes gained the last twelve opening rounds as well.
Pick: Webb Simpson (+3500)
Sahith Theegala Playing Inspired Golf
Sahith Theegala (12:54pm) very nearly earned his first PGA Tour victory last weekend at the Travelers Championship. He held a slim one stroke edge on the 72nd hole, but a costly double bogey dropped him into a tie for second. That was his second top-five in his last three events, having also had a T-5 at the Memorial Tournament.
In the last twelve measured rounds, he’s put together some very impressive ‘strokes gained’ statistics.
Sahith Theegala’s Strokes Gained Stats Last Twelve Rounds
|Total||Tee-To-Green||Ball Striking||Off-The-Tee||Short Game||Approach||Around-The-Green||Putting|
Still a tour rookie, Theegala has made ten straight cuts in individual tournaments, and has put together five top-10’s on the campaign. Considering he’s coming off a championship he led through 71 holes, it’s fairly surprising six golfers have shorter odds than him to jump out in front after 18 holes.
Pick: Sahith Theegala (+4500)
Adam Schenk Comfortable At This Course
Adam Schenk (7:07am) has had success at this track, placing tied for sixth in 2019, then doing even better with a T-4th last year (there was no 2020 tournament). For those two weeks, he gained over 20 total shots on the field, and over twelve tee-to-green.
Subsequently, his stats of late at this track have been impressive.
Schenk’s Strokes Gained Stats Last Twelve Rounds At TPC Deere Run
|Short Game||Total||Around The Green||Tee-To-Green||Putting|
Before a missed cut at the Travelers Championship, Schenk had T-26th and T-24th showings at premier tournaments at the Memorial and U.S. Open, showing his game is close to popping. At these odds, he’s an intriguing option.
Pick: Adam Schenk (+6500)
Michael “Hound Dog” Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statistician for the SC with Jay Onrait Show. He has worked at TSN for over 16 years, where he’s been featured on Sportscentre, That’s Hockey, That’s Hockey 2Nite, The Masters preview shows, and several more.