Secret Oath

Secret Oath, with Luis Saez aboard, wins the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, May 6, 2022

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  • The middle jewel of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes is Saturday in Baltimore
  • Nine horses are trying to win, but you can cash tickets for finishing 2nd and 3rd
  • Where can we find win, place, and show betting value for the 2022 Preakness Stakes?

You don’t have to go far back in history to find solid place and show payouts at the Preakness Stakes. Sure, Saturday is about Epicenter trying to avenge his second-place performance in the Kentucky Derby, and Oaks winner Secret Oath challenging the boys, but the object of the game is making money in the current Preakness Stakes odds.

Firing on the right horses to finish second and third can be rather profitable.

Two years ago Jesus’ Team paid $12.20 to show. In 2019 Everfast rewarded bettors with $32 to place. Take a look at the latest Preakness Stakes odds. Consider how they have changed since the Kentucky Derby concluded. Download a betting app for the Preakness Stakes, and let’s analyze where we can find value on win, place, and show.

Current Preakness Stakes Odds

Horse Win Odds Place Odds Show Odds
Epicenter +100 -275 -600
Secret Oath +550 +275 +105
Early Voting +550 +275 +105
Simplification +1000 +350 +175
Creative Minster +1200 +450 +275
Armagnac +2500 +750 +350
Skippylongstocking +2500 +800 +400
Happy Jack +3300 +1200 +700
Fenwick +5000 +1700 +1000

All odds taken May 21

Understanding horse racing bet types is important. Each race is a different puzzle, with various ways to go about producing a positive ROI. The odds above are listed in the American odds format, but you’ll likely see the fractional format at a racebook.

Odds matter, but so does handicapping. Obviously, the price dictates whether a horse is a good or bad betting value. On the flipside, horses, like basketball teams or golfers you bet on are not impacted by the odds. Keeping an eye on odds does not help indicate if a horse has a better or worse chance of performing, but it gives you a sense of what other bettors are thinking and what sort of return you can expect.

Remember a win bet only cashes if your horse finishes first and isn’t disqualified, or if the winner is DQ’ed and you bet on the second-place finisher. A place bet cashes, though for not as much money as a win bet, if your horse finishes first or second. If you bet to show and your horse is first, second, or third, you collect in your Preakness picks.

Preakness Stakes Win Predictions

On paper, there are four horses with resumes worthy of discussing to win the Preakness Stakes. Epicenter and Simplification both ran in the Kentucky Derby.

Epicenter has won four of seven races and twice finished second. A repeat of either of his last two races would be better than anyone else in the field has ever run.

Simplification was shuffled back early and had to rally very wide at Churchill Downs. It was an impressive effort, and he should be rolling down the stretch.

Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath dominated what seems to be a pretty strong three-year-old filly division two weeks ago.

She faced boys and finished third in the Arkansas Derby but it wasn’t the cleanest trip and she got a strong jockey change when winning the Oaks.

Early Voting skipped the Kentucky Derby correctly thinking the pace would be awfully hot. He was in front of the Wood Memorial for all but the final few strides.

Early Voting is more rested than his chief rivals and could have an unchallenged lead early on.

Preakness Stakes Place Predictions

How is this year’s Preakness Stakes going to be run?

Early Voting should be in front early on, or perhaps Armagnac will challenge him. Epicenter and Secret Oath are unlikely to allow Early Voting to be lollygagging along with an easy lead. Simplification and several others should be rolling late.

If you think Early Voting gets the lead and his extra rest allows him to kick on, does Epicenter or Secret Oath, who should be within striking range then settle for minor placings? If they challenge him early, do they all exert too much effort? It is hard to imagine Simplification not having an easier trip than he did in Louisville, and while he might not get to the winner, he should be surging up into the money down the stretch.

Preakness Stakes Show Predictions

Sure, the four top contenders in the Preakness Stakes odds could all finish on the board. That said, history suggests someone at a price will be a part of the podium.

Creative Minister has improved in each of his three starts.

He ran on the Derby undercard and looked strong rallying from behind to win.

Armagnac was trained by Bob Baffert until the top conditioner was suspended. He has speed and gets a serious rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz.

Skippylongstocking finished third in the Wood Memorial, next after Early Voting. Each of his last three races has improved on the previous one.

Preakness Stakes Win, Place, Show Picks

Epicenter needs only to repeat one of his better races to win this and has a very good chance to do so.

Though Early Voting is fast, he has never gone a-mile-and-three-sixteenths and is facing as tough a field as he has dealt with. Secret Oath is a terrific filly, but running against boys just two weeks after the best race you have ever run is a tough challenge.

Our Preakness expert picks are that Epicenter passes Early Voting at the top of the stretch, Simplification runs by everyone but Epicenter to secure second, and Creative Minister rallies to get up for third.

Preakness Stakes Best Bets for 2022

Win: Epicenter (+100)
Place: Simplification (+350)
Show: Creative Minister (+275)


Want more Preakness Stakes best bets and analysis for today’s big race and undercard? Click the links below for more Preakness picks from SBD.

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Dave F.

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