Joe Burrow, celebrates, Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) runs off the field after a 34-31 win over the Kansas City Chiefs during an NFL football game, Sunday, Jan. 2, 2022, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Emilee Chinn)

  • Aaron Rodgers was able to solidify his hold on top spot in the NFL MVP odds through Week 17
  • Another comeback from Tom Brady kept him in the hunt; a second massive week from Joe Burrow thrust him into the picture
  • See the updated NFL MVP odds following Week 17

When it comes to the NFL MVP odds, some of the league’s best have saved their best for last.

But is it too little too late?

While it took some time to get going, Aaron Rodgers put up another solid line against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night. Tom Brady and Joe Burrow won’t go quietly however, as each orchestrated big comebacks amid massive performances.

With one week to go in the season, adding an extra week to the schedule has had the desired effect. With so much left to be decided when it comes to the playoffs, plenty of players still in contention for MVP will have one last chance to make their case.

2021 NFL MVP Odds

Player Odds
Aaron Rodgers, GB -400
Tom Brady, TB +550
Jonathan Taylor, IND +1400
Joe Burrow, CIN +1400
Josh Allen, BUF +4000
Patrick Mahomes, KC +4000
Cooper Kupp, LAR +4000
Kyler Murray, ARZ +7500
Dak Prescott, DAL +10000
Justin Herbert, LAC +10000

Odds as of January 3rd from FanDuel

This is Rodgers’ third-straight week at the top of the NFL MVP odds, extending the healthy lead he established following Week 16.

In terms of names at the top of the board, Brady has been the most consistent. Even though he’s had his dips, TB12 has had staying power in the books’ eyes. A late surge on Sunday in a comeback over the Jets saved him from disaster.

But the biggest mover and shaker with a week to go? Joe Burrow. The Bengals QB has come up with a two week stretch for the ages.

Burrow Bursts Into NFL MVP Odds Picture

Joe Burrow has been in and out of the MVP conversation during the 2021 season.

Most of that jostling was early in the season though.

Burrow came out strong, leading the Bengals to a 3-1 start. He got them to 5-2 before a disheartening loss to Mike White and the Jets. Cincinnati actually fell to 5-4 before their Week 10 bye.

But since their bye week the Bengals are 5-2, and on Sunday they clinched the AFC North. And for two weeks, Burrow has been basically unstoppable.

Joe Burrow: Season Averages vs Last Two Weeks

68.7% Completion Percentage 78.8%
260 Yards 485.5
1.9 Touchdowns 4.0
1 Interceptions 0
8.11 Adjusted Yards/Attempt 13.31
100.7 Rating 145.6

Whether it’s an ‘off’ year for the Chiefs or not, beating Patrick Mahomes is beating Patrick Mahomes. Burrow dropped a 30/39, 446-yard, four TD performance on the former MVP in a ridiculous comeback. Cincy trailed by two scores three times on Sunday.

Mahomes only managed 259 yards and two touchdowns.

Burrow re-aggravated a knee injury on Sunday but it shouldn’t matter. With top spot up for grabs in the AFC, Burrow and the Bengals visit the Browns.

The Case For Non-QBs

Following Week 16, we made the case for Jonathan Taylor and Cooper Kupp. They are undoubtedly the only two non-QBs with a case for MVP.

Using 2,000 rushing yards as the baseline for Taylor’s candidacy, he entered the last two weeks as a long shot to get there. Needing 187 in each of the final two weeks, he only managed 108 in a loss to the Raiders. But he did pick up another TD.

As for Kupp, he heads into Week 18 just 136 yards shy of setting a new single-season record for receiving yards, and 11 shy of matching the mark for catches. Getting one of those marks will help, but it will come down to how the Rams want to handle Week 18.

One Last Chance for Rodgers, Brady

When it came to the final two weeks of the season, both Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady got two very winnable games to make their case.

While it took a bit for Brady to get the Bucs in gear, he essentially scored another walk-off win. After Antonio Brown literally walked off of the team. As for Rodgers, his challenge got significantly easier once it was revealed Kirk Cousins wouldn’t be playing thanks to Covid-19.

Brady vs Rodgers: Week 17

34/50 Comp/Att 29/38
410 Yards 288
3 Touchdowns 2
1 Interceptions 0
1 Sacks 0
104.6 Rating 114.8

Brady gets the Panthers in Week 18, while Rodgers draws the Lions. Although they’re coming off of a blowout at the hands of Seattle, Detroit had been playing better the last few weeks. With the Packers eyeing the all-valuable first round bye, Rodgers will likely get some significant playing time.

He’ll have a chance to pad his numbers.

Intrigue Surrounds Week 18 in NFL MVP Odds

Aaron Rodgers has been the popular choice for NFL MVP for weeks, and Joe Burrow has used two massive weeks to burst onto the scene. But it’s still hard to ignore Tom Brady.

Brady will likely be the only QB to pass 5,000 yards this season. He is currently the only QB with 40 passing TDs this year, and only three other QBs even have a shot at joining him. Rodgers is not one of those three.

That’s not to say Rodgers doesn’t have his ridiculous numbers either. His 35-4 TD/INT ratio is almost unfathomable, and he has the best QB rating of any of the 32 starters.

Considering how close they are statistically, the best bet is the best value. And that still lies with Brady.

The Pick: Tom Brady (+550)

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Bryan Thiel

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