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Air Force Falcons fullback Emmanuel Michel celebrates his touchdown with quarterback Zac Larrier

Sep 15, 2023; Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA; Air Force Falcons fullback Emmanuel Michel (4) celebrates his touchdown with quarterback Zac Larrier (9) in the first quarter against the Utah State Aggies at Falcon Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Falcons are laying 3.5 points in the Air Force vs San Jose State odds on Friday night
  • Air Force has outscored its opponents 94-31 through three games
  • Check out the Air Force vs San Jose State odds and picks below

The Friday night lights shine on the Mountain West in Week 4, as undefeated Air Force visits San Jose State. The Falcons have rolled to three easy victories so far, and online sportsbooks have pegged them as road chalk in the college football odds.

Air Force vs San Jose State Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Air Force Falcons -3.5 (-110) -182 O 46.5 (-115)
San Jose State Spartans +3.5 (-110) +150 U 46.5 (-105)

Air Force is currently favored by 3.5 points, in a contest with a total of 46.5. Despite the Falcons perfect start, the early spread betting action is heavy on the Spartans. As of Tuesday morning, San Jose is drawing 94% of the ATS money as home underdogs per the college football public betting trends.

Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 pm ET at CEFCU Stadium in San Jose, CA, with FS1 providing the broadcast coverage. The evening is setting up as a perfect one for football, with clear skies and 12 mph winds in the forecast.


Odds as of September 19 at BetMGM. Get a BetMGM promo code to bet on NCAA football in Week 4.

Air Force Falcons Betting Analysis

There’s one dimensional offenses and then there’s Air Force. The Falcons have thrown the ball on just 7.52% of their offensive snaps, rushing the ball at a nation-high 92.48% clip. Air Force deploys a triple-option attack led by QB Zac Larrier, and it’s helped them outscore their opponents 94-31 through three games.

The Falcons average 61 carries and 294 rushing yards per contest. Those numbers rank first and second in the country, with three of their four primary ball carriers averaging over 5.0 yards per pop. 11 of their 12 total touchdowns have come on the ground, with the production being incredibly balanced.

Larrier and fullback Emmanuel Michel have each hit pay dirt three times, with lead running back Owen Burk scoring twice. All three players have earned at least 39 carries, helping the Falcons rank in the upper half of college football in scoring and points per play.

Defensively, this unit has been impenetrable, allowing just over 10 points per outing. They lead the nation in opponent yards per play and per game, and have clearly benefitted from practicing against an elite rushing attack. Air Force is extremely stingy against the run, yielding only 1.6 yards per attempt.

If there’s a weakness on this side of the ball it’s through the air, and that’s potentially an area that San Jose State can exploit. The Falcons coughed up over 200 yards and three scores to Utah State’s passing game in Week 4, and the aerial attack just happens to be the Spartans’ bread and butter.

San Jose State Spartans Betting Analysis

San Jose QB Chevan Cordeiro leads one of the country’s most pass-happy offenses into action. The Spartans throw at college football’s eighth-highest rate, which has led Cordeiro to produce a 6-to-1 TD-to-INT mark.

San Jose State is just one week removed from hanging 59 points on Cal Poly, and also racked up 28 points in a Week 0 loss to Heisman Trophy odds favorite Caleb Williams and USC. They’re extremely one-dimensional, but given their lackluster run game and the elite run D of Air Force, they might as well stick with what works.

Defensively is where the big issues lie. This team is allowing 40 points per game, and a 97% red zone scoring rate. Their pass defense is arguably worse than their run D, but given the Falcons triple-option attack, we’ll focus solely on the Spartans play against the run.

They’re coughing up 5.8 yards per carry and 198 rushing yards per game. Toledo just ripped them for 229 yards on the ground, and they don’t possess a rushing attack anywhere near as potent as the Falcons.

Air Force vs San Jose State Predictions

As a result, this game sets up for Air Force to run wild. They should be able to methodically march up and down the field on this poor defense, ripping off five to six yards per play. Typically, run-dominant game scripts slow the game down and make us lean toward the under, but San Jose State can absolutely turn this game into a shootout.

Air Force vs San Jose State FPI Efficiency Ranks

Team Overall Offense Defense
Air Force Falcons 27th 40th 11th
San Jose State Spartans 72nd 72nd 93rd

They’ve got a competent pass offense, and the Falcons have yet to be tested. Air Force hasn’t played a team ranked inside the top-88 in the country and just one of their opponents have been ranked inside the top-114.

The Spartans are 3-1 to the over so far this season, with both home games eclipsing the total. This one should be a high-scoring affair as well.

Pick: Over 46.5 (-115)


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Chris Amberley

Sports Writer


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