Germany’s Alexander Zverev gestures after a winning set as he plays Russia’s Daniil Medvedev during their ATP World Tour Finals singles tennis match, at the Pala Alpitour in Turin, Tuesday, Nov. 16, 2021. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)
- Alexander Zverev is a heavy -380 favorite over Hubert Hurkacz in their ATP Finals round robin match on Thursday, November 18
- Zverev is 1-1 in group stage play, while Hurkacz is 0-2
- The winner of this match could secure a semifinal berth
Heading into the final day of group stage play at the ATP Finals, Alexander Zverev and Hubert Hurkacz have accumulated one win between them through four matches.
However, as they enter the final day of round robin play in the Red Group, both could still claim a semifinal berth. Daniil Medvedev (2-0) is already through to the semis. Zverev, Hurkacz and Jannik Sinner (0-2) are all in contention to join him there.
Zverev is heavily favored to be that guy with the oddsmakers. They’ve set the German player as an overwhelming -380 favorite to defeat Poland’s Hurkacz.
Zverev vs Hurkacz ATP Finals Odds
|Alexander Zverev||-380||-3.5 (-120)||O 20.5 (-240)|
|Hubert Hurkacz||+280||+3.5 (-110)||U 20.5 (+155)|
Odds as of November 17 at FanDuel
The match is slated for an 8:00 am ET start on Thursday. Amazon Prime is carrying the broadcast. It can be streamed at Tennis TV.
Alexander Zverev Betting Trends
For Zverev, the formula to reach the semfinals is a simple one – win and he’s in. Yet, much like Hurkacz, Zverev isn’t exactly overwhelming anyone thus far with his play in Turin.
The 2020 Olympic men’s singles gold medalist did win over Matteo Berrettini, but only after the Italian player was forced to retire from the match due to an abdominal injury. Zverev was ahead 7-6(9-7), 1-0 at the time that Berrettini was hurt, so it wasn’t like he was dominating the match.
Stayed cool 😎
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) November 16, 2021
in the battle between the world’s #2 and #3-ranked players, #2 Medvedev scraped out a three-set triumph over #3 Zverev. The German player fell 3-6, 7-6(7-3), 6-7(6-8) to his Russian opponent.
Zverev did show some promising numbers in the match. He bettered Medvedev 18-14 in aces and also held a 79% to 70% edge on first service percentage. However, he was 0-4 on break points and trailed 70-79 in percentage of service games won. Medvedev also took 34 return games, compared to 29 for Zverev.
Hubert Hurkacz Betting Trends
It’s been a dream season for Hurkacz. He’s won three titles and moved into the top 10 of the ATP rankings. So far, though, his first appearance in the ATP Finals is proving to be a nightmare performance.
Hurkacz fell 7-6(7-5), 3-6, 4-6 to Medvedev in his opening match. Hurkacz proved unable to break Medvedev’s serve, meaning he could never win more than one game in a row. Meanwhile, the Russian managed a pair of service breaks against Hurkacz.
hubert 😃 hurkacz 😊 twenty one 2️⃣1️⃣ poland 🇵🇱 pic.twitter.com/ofj5VY5Ty8
— mika (@mikamclaren) November 9, 2021
Sinner, stepping in as an alternate for his injured countryman Berrettini, then whipped Hurkacz in straight sets 6-2, 6-2. Hurkacz won just 58% of his service games against Sinner and again was unable to break Sinner’s serve. He was 0-for-5 on break points. Meanwhile, Hurkacz’s serve was broken by Sinner in each set.
Zverev vs Hurkacz Prediction
En route to his 2018 ATP Finals title, Zverev also arrived at his final group stage match with a 1-1 record. He beat John Isner to get through to the semis and rolled to the crown from there. Zverev owns the longest current consecutive streak of appearances in the ATP Finals.
#NittoATPFinals Day 5 Media Notes: https://t.co/rLHTmep8g2
* @DaniilMedwed 9 straight wins v Italians
* @JannikSin qualifies for SF with W + Zverev L (would be 1st Italian & Alternate in SF)
* @AlexZverev qualifies for SF with W
* @HubertHurkacz qualifies for SF with W + Sinner L
— ATP Media Info (@ATPMediaInfo) November 17, 2021
For Hurkacz to get to the semifinals, he’ll need to win the match from Zverev and hope that Medvedev defeats Sinner in their match. Sinner could get to the semis if Hurkacz were to beat Zverev, and by beating Medvedev himself.
Alexander Zverev vs Hubert Hurkacz Stats
|27||ATP Final Appearances||4|
|86%||Service Games Won||86%|
|29%||Return Games Won||20%|
|60%||Break Points Saved||65%|
This will be just the second time that third-seeded Zverev and #9 seed Hurkacz have met on court. Their previous encounter came in the round of 16 at Madrid in a 2019 ATP Masters 1000 event. Zverev ended up rallying for a 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 three-set verdict.
Alexander Zverev has never won a match at the #NittoATPFinals after losing the opening set.
— ATP Tour (@atptour) November 16, 2021
Zverev is a solid 10-3 on indoor hard court surfaces this season, compared to 8-6 for world #9 Hurkacz. The Polish player has now lost three matches in a row and is 3-5 through his last eight appearances on court. Zverev is 1-2 over his last three matches, with both of those losses coming at the hands of Medvedev.
Pick: Alexander Zverev -380; Zverev 2-0 (-120)
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.