Andrey Rublev vs Casper Ruud

Russia’s Andrey Rublev celebrates after defeating Greece’s Stefanos Tsitsipas during their ATP World Tour Finals singles tennis match, at the Pala Alpitour in Turin, Monday, Nov. 15, 2021. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)

  • Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud both bring 1-1 records into their Friday match at the ATP Finals
  • The winner will advance to the semifinals, to play Daniil Medvedev
  • Rublev is the favorite; read on for our analysis and betting predictions

The good news is that the winner of Friday’s match between Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud (8:00 am ET) will qualify for the ATP Tour semifinals.

The bad news is that he will have to play against US Open champion Daniil Medvedev.

But given both Rublev and Casper Ruud have played, and lost to, world No. 1 Novak Djokovic in round-robin play, they already know nothing will be easy.

Andrey Rublev vs Casper Ruud Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[5] Andrey Rublev (RUS) 12.5 (-115) -195 O 22.5 (-125)
[8] Casper Ruud (NOR) +2.5 (-125) +150 U 22.5 (-115)

Odds as of Nov. 18 at DraftKings

Both Rublev and Ruud Benefit from Injuries

Rublev’s numbers in his 6-4, 6-4 victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas were dominant; he lost just 4-of-41 points with his first serve, and never faced a break point.

But it was known coming in that Tsitsipas’s elbow was troubling him. Indeed, after that defeat, the Greek star withdrew from the rest of the event.

For Ruud, the break came in his second match. Instead of facing Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini and his home crowd, he instead had to square off against second alternate Cameron Norrie of Great Britain.

Having trounced Norrie when they met in the San Diego final last month, he had to feel confident.

But facing a lefthander as a late switch required an adjustment period.

And the first set was a whitewash for Norrie. But after that, Ruud showed his quality and ended up beating Norrie 1-6, 6-3, 6-4.

Andrey Rublev vs Casper Ruud Head-to-Head

24 (Oct. 20, 1997) Age 22 (Dec. 22, 1998)
Moscow, Russia Birthplace Oslo, Norway
6-2 Height 6-0
8 Career ATP Singles Titles 6
2 ATP Tour Finals Appearances 1
No. 5 (Sept. 13, 2021) Career High Ranking No. 8 (Oct. 25, 2021)
No. 5 Current Ranking No. 8
$9,651,504 Career Prize Money $4,184,546
49-21 2021 Won/Loss record 54-16
4 Career Head to Head 0

Rublev Owns Rivalry With Ruud

Rublev’s head-to-head against Ruud is a perfect 4-0, including one retirement after winning the first two sets at the Australian Open, with Ruud suffering from an ongoing abdominal injury.

The standout takeaway is that Rublev has won all three of their meetings on clay.

Ruud has reached the top 10 largely based on his clay results. And even before that, he was already known as a formidable for on that surface.

Andrey Rublev vs Casper Ruud Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2021 Monte Carlo Masters (SF) Outdoor Clay 6-3, 7-5 Rublev
2021 Australian Open (R16) Outdoor Hard 6-2, 7-6 (3) retd Rublev
2020 Hamburg (SF) Outdoor Clay 6-4, 6-2 Rublev
2019 Hamburg (R16) Outdoor Clay 3-6, 7-5, 6-3 Rublev

Ruud the More Aggressive of the Two

The surprising thing about the numbers from their two matches so far this week in Torino is that Ruud has appeared to be far more aggressive in making things happen on the court.

He has out-aced Rublev, has more winners, and more unforced errors.

He has been more effective in winning his own second-serve points. And he has been significantly more effective on his opponent’s second serve.

Here are their comparable statistics, as both lost in straight sets to Djokovic earlier in the week.

Andrey Rublev & Casper Ruud vs Djokovic

Category Andrey Rublev Casper Ruud
Aces 6 9
Double Faults 1 4
Winners 18 23
Unforced Errors 26 20
Points Won on 1st Serve 67.9% 62.8%
Points Won on 2nd Serve 29.2% 42.3%
Break Points Saved 2/6 2/5
Return points Won on 1st Serve 12.9% 10.3%
Return points Won on 2nd Serve 58.9% 57.1%
Break Points Converted 1/1 1/1

Ruud in With a Shot

Despite his woeful head-to-head against Rublev, Ruud has shown himself to be the more poised performer this week – in his first appearance at the ATP Finals.

It is Rublev’s second trip to the year-end tournament. He went 1-2 in group play last year.

He has a bigger awareness of the stakes, while for Ruud this is all new and fun.

And if Ruud can make Djokovic pay on his second serve so effectively, he should be able to do even better against Rublev’s second delivery.

The quick court can be a blessing and a curse for the Russian, who has played relatively within himself so far but for whom the ball could fly if he’s feeling the pressure.

It feels as though it will be straight sets – one way or the other – depending on who handles the occasion better.

Best Bet: Under 22.5 games (-115)

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Stephanie Myles

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MLB
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