Leury Garcia home run celebration

Chicago White Sox’s Leury Garcia rounds the bases after hitting a three-run home run against the Houston Astros in the third inning during Game 3 of a baseball American League Division Series Sunday, Oct. 10, 2021, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

  • The Chicago White Sox are -126 moneyline favorites over the Houston Astros in Game 4 of the ALDS on Monday (October 11th, 3:37 pm ET)
  • Chicago will give the ball to Carlos Rodon (13-2, 2.37 ERA), while Houston will counter with Jose Urquidy (8-3, 3.62 ERA)
  • Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

It took three games, but Chicago’s bats finally showed up in the ALDS. The White Sox pounded 16 hits and crossed the plate 12 times in a 12-6 rout of the Houston Astros, staving off elimination and forcing at least one more game in the best-of-5 series.

Game 4 goes Monday afternoon (October 11th) in south Chicago, and for the second straight game the White Sox are favored.

Astros vs White Sox Game 4 Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Houston Astros +108 +1.5 (-176) O 9 (-102)
Chicago White Sox -126 -1.5 (+146) U 9 (-120)

Odds as of Oct. 11th at FanDuel.
Chicago opened up as a -126 moneyline favorite, in a game that features a total of 9. First pitch is scheduled for 3:37 pm ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in south Chicago, with rain, 19 mph winds, and 72 degree temperatures in the forecast.

Probable Pitchers

The White Sox will give the ball to Carlos Rodon, who’s been pushed back to Game 4 in this series thanks to a shoulder injury. The righty threw just 28 innings over the final two months of the regular season, but was instrumental in helping Chicago coast to the AL Central title.

Rodon set personal bests in wins and ERA in 2021, en route to his first All-Star selection. His 132 innings were the most he’s pitched since 2016, and he ended the the regular season by allowing two or fewer earned runs in six straight starts, and in nine of his past 10 outings.

One of those starts came against Houston, and it was a masterpiece. Rodon held the Astros to one hit over seven shutout innings, striking out 10 in a 4-0 victory. He had Houston’s number all season, surrendering only four hits and two runs to baseball’s best offense over 14 innings.

Monday will mark his first career playoff start, after he pitched to just three batters in relief during last year’s ALDS.

Urquidy vs Rodon

8-3 Record 13-5
3.62 ERA 2.37
0.99 WHIP 0.96
.218 OBA .189
4.3 SO/W Ratio 5.1

Houston will counter with Jose Urquidy, who’s fresh off a career season of his own. The 26-year-old set personal bests in wins, WHIP, innings pitched and strikeouts, holding enemy bats to three runs or less in 16 of 20 starts.

Urquidy ended the regular season by winning each of his last four decisions, including his only meeting with the White Sox. He limited Chicago to four hits and two runs over 7 innings, striking out five in a 10-2 blowout victory.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

White Sox Batters Batting Average vs Urquidy Astros Batters Batting Average vs Rodon
Jose Abreu .333 Jose Altuve .250
Tim Anderson .000 Yordan Alvarez .333
 Adam Engel .333 Michael Brantley .100
Yasmani Grandal .333 Alex Bregman .333
Andrew Vaughn .000 Martin Maldonado .000
Yoan Moncada .000 Carlos Correa .200
Danny Mendick .000 Jason Castro .333
Yuli Gurriel .250

He’s made four career playoff starts over the past two postseasons, posting a 1-1 record, with a 2.46 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

Astros vs White Sox Pick

The most surprising thing about Sunday’s victory was not that Chicago staved off elimination, it’s how they did it. The Astros jumped out to an early 5-1 lead, but Chicago didn’t back down scoring 11 straight runs en route to victory.

After two games without an extra-base hit, the White Sox smacked two home runs and finished 8-for-15 with runners in scoring position.

Still, let’s not lose sight of the fact that Houston’s lineup continued to mash as well. The Astros scored six times for the sixth straight game and once again feasted on Chicago’s pen. Houston has now scored nine times versus White Sox relievers this series which is significant due to Rodon’s history of arm problems. The lefty didn’t exceed 5 innings in any of his final eight starts, and it’s tough to project an outing longer than that on Monday.

The Astros are slugging .420 with a .820 OPS over the past week, and Urquidy should provide more stability on the mound than Luis Garcia did in Game 3. Roll with the underdogs at very favorable odds.

Pick: Houston Astros Moneyline (-102)

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Chris Amberley

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