Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad

Atletico Madrid’s head coach Diego Simeone gestures during a Spanish La Liga soccer match between Alaves and Atletico Madrid at the Mendizorroza stadium in Vitoria, Spain, Saturday, Sept. 25, 2021. (AP Photo/Alvaro Barrientos)

  • Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad matchup on Sunday, October, 24th
  • Real Sociedad are top of La Liga but have a poor recent record in this fixture
  • Read below for the latest odds, betting preview and prediction

Atletico are three points behind Real Sociedad ahead of their meeting on Matchday 10 of the La Liga season. Sociedad have once again started the season very strongly, but they are underdogs for this trip to the capital. Atletico have a proud recent record in this fixture, winning 11 of their last 15 home meetings with Sociedad, and going unbeaten since 2013.

With just two wins from their four home league matches so far, though, Diego Simeone’s side have shown vulnerability at the Wanda Metropolitano. Sociedad’s away form hasn’t been perfect either with a draw away to Getafe in their last road outing and only a narrow victory against struggling Granada.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Atletico vs Real Sociedad ATM -0.75 (-110) | RSD +0.75 (+100) ATM -150 | RSD +450 | DRAW +290 Ov 2.5 (+125) | Un 2.5 (-145)

Odds as of Oct 22 at DraftKings

The Form Book

Atletico beat Milan and Barcelona before the international break, but they suffered defeat to Liverpool in midweek. There’s no shame in such a result against Jurgen Klopp’s team, particularly considering that Simeone’s team were down to 10 men for much of the second half. That defeat makes it just four wins in nine matches in all competitions, however.

Sociedad had a happier time in European action. They would have liked a more comfortable victory against Sturm Graz, though Imanol Alguacil will have been delighted to see his team extend their unbeaten run to 11 matches in all competitions. Despite their good form, goal scoring has been a real problem for Los Txuri-Urdin – they have scored just five goals in their last five outings.

The history of this fixture in Madrid points to an easy home win. A broader view shows a more balanced picture. Sociedad have notched two wins and a draw in their last seven matchups with Atleti overall, and put in a competitive performance when the sides met at the end of last season, registering 14 shots to Atletico’s 12.

Potential Stalemate

Neither of these sides will look to seize control through monotonous possession. They both rank in the bottom half in passes played when pressed, suggesting they will look to move the ball forward quickly rather than tap it around in their own territory. It’s also two defenses that favor sitting off rather than harassing their opponent high up the pitch.

Only Sevilla have fewer defensive actions leading to a shot than Atletico. Sociedad also rank in the bottom half in that category. Atleti and Sociedad are tied second in through balls played this season. They both want space in behind to attack in transition, but neither will afford the other such a luxury on Sunday.

This match risks becoming very congested in the middle third. They rank second and fourth in expected goals against this term with both managers relying on sturdy defense. Both sides are set up to absorb pressure.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad La Liga Statistics

DWDWLW Form WDWWDW
11 Goals scored 12
51.9% Average possession 56.9%
30 yellows, 2 reds Cards 15 yellows, 1 red
11.5 Shots per match 12.9
311 Progressive passes 313
+0.38 Expected goal difference per 90 +0.62

Low-Scoring Match Expected

Under 2.5 has hit in three of Atletico’s four home league matches. There hasn’t been more than two goals in any of Sociedad’s last five matches, and they haven’t scored more than once over that span. The price on under 2.5 total is short, but it still looks like a solid bet for Sunday’s match.

Given the likelihood that this is a low-scoring match, Atletico to win in a shutout at +145 also represents decent value if you fancy Simeone’s team to bounce back from their midweek defeat. History is on their side here after all.

The +700 price on a 1-1 correct score bet is tempting. There’s not much to choose between these two teams so far this season.

Pick: Under 2.5 total goals (-145)

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Sam Cox

NBA
MLB
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Sports Writer

NBA
MLB
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