Tom Brady scream

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) reacts before an NFL football game against the Philadelphia Eagles, Thursday, Oct. 14, 2021, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Rich Schultz)

  • The Chicago Bears travel to Tampa to square off with the Buccaneers in Week 7
  • Last week’s prop picks: 2-3. Overall: 12-13, -1.29 units
  • See the odds, spread, analysis, and best prop bets below

Perhaps the only good thing that came out of last week’s picks was Baker Mayfield just passing his over total before going down with a shoulder injury. That would have really sent our picks into a spin.

Alas, we still come out on the short end, but in a good spot to bounce back in Week 7, with the Chicago Bears vising the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

It certainly looks like a mismatch, but Tampa is wrecked in their secondary, while missing key weapons like Antonio Brown and Gronk.

You can get set for the game with odds here. For us, let’s list our favorite prop bets this week.

Bears vs Buccaneers Player Props

Passer Completions Passing Yards Passing TDs
Justin Fields (CHI) 19.5 (Ov -105 / Un -125) 220.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +190 / Un -265)
Tom Brady (TB) 25.5 (Ov -130 / Un +100) 298.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 2.5 (Ov +125 / Un -170)
Rusher Rushing Yards Rush + Rec Yards Longest Rush
Justin Fields (CHI) 18.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) OFF OFF
Leonard Fournette (TB) 65.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 95.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 14.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)
Ronald Jones II (TB) 19.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110) 25.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 8.5 (Ov +105 / Un -135)
Tom Brady (TB) 1.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) OFF OFF
Receiver Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
Allen Robinson (CHI) 4.5 (Ov +105 / Un -140) 55.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)
Chris Godwin (TB) 5.5 (Ov -160 / Un +120) 71.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)
Cole Kmet (CHI) 3.5 (Ov +110 / Un -145) 31.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 15.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)
Darnell Mooney (CHI) 4.5 (Ov +105 / Un -135) 52.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)
Giovani Bernard (TB) 2.5 (Ov +140 / Un -190) 11.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110) OFF
Leonard Fournette (TB) 3.5 (Ov -145 / Un +110) 25.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 12.5 (Ov -105 / Un -125)
Marquise Goodwin (CHI) 1.5 (Ov +115 / Un -150) 12.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110) 10.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)
Mike Evans (TB) 4.5 (Ov -130 / Un +100) 67.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)
Tyler Johnson (TB) 2.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110) 29.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 16.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)

Odds taken Oct 23 from DraftKings

Trust in Tom

Tom Brady has had extended time off since their Thursday night win against Philly, so there shouldn’t really be any concerns about a sore thumb.

And he has feasted at home, throwing for at least 379 yards passing in three of his last four game at Raymond James.

The Bears have been somewhat formidable defensively, however, not allowing a passer to go over this total of completions all year. Brady has at least 26 completions in four of his six starts, including 30+ in each of his last two outings, though they’ve been turnstile-like defenses in Miami and Philly.

Chicago has allowed just one pivot, Matthew Stafford, to connect on three TD passes on them in a game this season, and that was Week 1.

TB12 is second in the league with 17 TD passes on the year, though he’s cracked three scores in a game in half his starts this year.

Both those wagers have plus-odds, and I’m for it.

Picks:

  • Brady UNDER 25.5 completions (1 unit to win 1 unit)
  • Brady OVER 2.5 TD passes (1 unit to win 1.25 units)

Bet on Bernard

Giovani Bernard is about as strictly a pass-catching back as there is in the NFL. He’s only carried the ball in one game this season, but he’s had at least two catches in all five games he’s this season. He’s only surpassed the 2.5 reception total once this year, though.

Because the Bears’ defense gets upfield and pressures the QB, running backs have featured more prominently in the pass game. In each of the Bears’ last four games, a running back has had at least four receptions in each.

Gio hauled in a season-high nine grabs in a Week 4 loss to the Rams. He won’t surpass that here, but he should top that total.

Pick:

  • Bernard OVER 2.5 receptions (0.5 units to win 0.7 units)

Risk for Robinson

Honestly, if there’s ever a time Allen Robinson could shake loose, this has to be the game.

The Bucs are riddled with injuries in the secondary. Starting corners Sean Murphy-Bunting and Carlton Davis are already on IR, and Richard Sherman is out with a hamstring injury. With Jamel Dean as their only starting corner available, there must be a way to scheme Robinson open for looks for Justin Fields.

His highest reception total in a game this season is six, which happened in Week 1, when Andy Dalton was still the starter.

Chicago has to throw to even be competitive in this game, as the Bucs possess a crippling run defense. I like him to get to at least five catches.

Tampa has surrendered a 5-catch day to the opposition five times in six games, and four games with multiple players getting in on the act.

Pick:

  • Robinson OVER 4.5 receptions (0.5 units to win 0.525 units)

Bears vs Buccaneers Scoring Props

Player First Touchdown Scorer Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Leonard Fournette (TB) +600 -120
Mike Evans (TB) +650 -115
+750 +110

OJ Howard (TB)

+1000 +160
Cameron Brate (TB) +1300 +200
Khalil Herbert (CHI) +1400 +200
Allen Robinson (CHI) +1400 +200
Tyler Johnson (TB) +1400 +225
Damien Williams (CHI) +1500 +225
Justin Fields (CHI) +1600 +240
Darnell Mooney (CHI) +1600 +250

Who Scores?

Two receivers to pinpoint here, courtesy of our friends at DraftKings.

Chris Godwin has scored a TD in seven of Tampa’s last eight games as favorites against NFC opponents. With Gronk and AB out, there are red zone targets to be had for the talented wideout.

Robinson has scored a TD in seven of his last nine regular season appearances vs NFC South opposition. There’s good value on both here.

  • Pick: Godwin to score anytime TD (1 unit to win 1.1 units)
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Eric Rosales

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