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Fivethirtyeight

In poll after poll in the past week the message has been coming from American voters that they disapprove of Biden. One group which has seen a big fall in support is from independent voters who played such a role in helping him beat Trump eleven months ago.

It is almost hard to credit now but back in June he held a net 9% approval lead – support which has just frittered away.

Like just about every other leader in the world leader the big issue he has to face is how he is judged to have handled Covid. With nearly 70m still to be vaccinated the number of new cases continues to rise. Biden’s big move on this was to mandate vaccinations for federal staff – a move that has proved to be highly controversial.

It is very hard to see him running for a second term and the betting markets give him just a 31% chance of being the nominee.

Mike Smithson



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