Josh Allen has thrown 12 touchdowns and rushed for three in the first four games of the 2020 NFL season. Photo from @PFF (Twitter)
- Due to postponements resulting from COVID, we get Tuesday Night Football to cap off Week 5 between the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans at 7pm ET (October 13)
- Will Josh Allen continue to excel? Will Titans players be rusty after limited practice?
- See the lines on the most popular team and player props as well as our best bets
Week 5 of the NFL season has been extended one day to allow the Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans game to be played, which had to be pushed a couple days due to positive COVID tests coming out of Tennessee. Even with the extra days, the Titans are expected to be without a handful of their pass-catchers, including Corey Davis and Adam Humphries.
Who’s in and who’s out is vitally important to betting player props in tonight’s game. So be sure to check out our Bills vs Titans odds for updated injury reports as well as other betting options. Let’s start with the lines for player props.
Bills vs Titans Player Props
|Quarterback||Completions||Passing Yards||Passing TD|
|Josh Allen (BUF)||24.5 (Ov +100 | Un -125)||295.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||1.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Ryan Tannehill (TEN)||19.5 (Ov -155 | Un +124)||239.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106)||2.5 (Ov +130 | Un -165)|
|Running Backs||Rush Attempts||Rush Yards||Rush + Receiving Yards|
|Devin Singletary (BUF)||N/A||56.5 (Ov -115 | Un -110)||80.5 (Ov -111 | Un -110)|
|Josh Allen (BUF)||N/A||32.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||N/A|
|Ryan Tannehill (TEN)||N/A||13.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
|Derrick Henry (TEN)||22.5 (Ov -134 | Un +108)||99.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||121.5 (Ov -115 | Un -118)|
|Wide Receivers + Tight Ends||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|Stefon Diggs (BUF)||4.5 (Ov -215 | Un +168)||81.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115)||26.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113)|
|Cole Beasley (BUF)||4.5 (Ov +118 | Un -150)||48.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||20.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113)|
|Dawson Knox (BUF)||2.5 (Ov +172 | Un -225)||21.5 (Ov +100 | Un -122)||13.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)|
|Derrick Henry (TEN)||2.5 (Ov +124 | Un -158)||14.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115)||N/A|
|Kalif Raymond (TEN)||2.5 (Ov -102 | Un -125)||38.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||N/A|
|AJ Brown (TEN)||4.5 (Ov -136 | Un +106)||62.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||23.5 (Ov -106 | Un -120)|
|Jonnu Smith (TEN)||5.5 (Ov -128 | Un +100)||59.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||20.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113)|
All odds taken Oct. 13th from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM
Prop #1: Tannehill Gets it Done With Depleted Receiving Corps
The Bills allow an average of 280.3 passing yards per game and have only held one passer under 297 yards this season – Sam Darnold in Week 1. Ryan Tannehill is averaging 269.7 passing yards per game in 2020, and his lowest output was 239 yards through the air in Week 2.
But thanks to Corey Davis and Adam Humphries likely set to miss tonight’s game, Tannehill’s passing yards line is only 239.5.
Here’s why you don’t have to worry: (1) AJ Brown returns to the lineup tonight, and I don’t suspect we’ll see him held back; (2) Jonnu Smith, Derrick Henry, and Kalif Raymond are all threats in the passing game; (3) the Bills score the fifth-most points in the league, so I suspect Tennessee will be forced to play from behind for large periods of this game; and (4) Tre’Davious White is out.
Pick: Tannehill OVER 239.5 passing yards (-118), 1 unit
Prop #2: Singletary Runs All Over Titans Defense
Zack Moss will miss his third straight game, so it will again Devin Singletary’s show. This bodes well for the second-year RB, who has rushed for 127 yards in the last two games without Moss.
#Bills inactives vs. Titans:
QB Jake Fromm
RB Zack Moss
WR John Brown
TE Lee Smith
G Quinton Spain
LB Matt Milano
CB Tre’Davious White
— Joe Buscaglia (@JoeBuscaglia) October 13, 2020
But both of those games came against better run defenses than what he’ll face tonight. The Titans rank 31st against the run, allowing 166 rushing yards per game. They also allow a league-worst 5.8 yards per carry and will be without Jeffery Simmons.
Even if Singletary only sees 12-14 carries tonight, it should be more than enough to get him over 56.5 rushing yards.
Pick: Devin Singletary OVER 56.5 rushing yards (-115), 2 units
Bills vs Titans Touchdown Props
|Player||Odds to Score 1st TD||Odds to Score Any TD|
|Derrick Henry (TEN)||+500||-225|
|Josh Allen (BUF)||+800||-106|
|Devin Singletary (BUF)||+950||+110|
|AJ Brown (TEN)||+1000||+120|
|Stefon Diggs (BUF)||+1050||+125|
|Jonnu Smith (TEN)||+1100||+140|
|Cole Beasley (BUF)||+1400||+200|
|Kalif Raymond (TEN)||+1600||+240|
|Gabriel Davis (BUF)||+2200||+300|
|Ryan Tannehill (TEN)||+2800||+425|
|Dawson Knox (BUF)||+3000||+475|
|Anthony Firkser (TEN)||+3500||+550|
|Tyler Kroft (BUF)||+4000||+650|
|Isaiah McKenzie (BUF)||+5000||+800|
|TJ Yeldon (BUF)||+5000||+800|
|Darrynton Evans (TEN)||+6000||+1000|
Who Are the Best Bets to Score a Touchdown?
Without Zack Moss around to vulture his goal line work, Devin Singletary presents incredible value at +110 to score a touchdown tonight against a very soft Titans front. He may only have one touchdown to his name this season, but he’ll have plenty of opportunity tonight.
Sticking with the players benefiting from others not playing tonight, there is no Bills defensive back who can cover AJ Brown with Tre’Davious White missing from the lineup. When the Titans get in the red zone, all Buffalo’s focus will go to stopping Derrick Henry, and Brown will be left with single-coverage on the outside.
— John Glennon (@glennonsports) October 13, 2020
The second-year wide receiver averaged a touchdown every other game in his rookie year, and has not found the endzone yet this season, having only played most of Week 1’s game against the Broncos.
Finally, I’m taking a flier on Ryan Tannehill to run one in as well. The 32-year-old had four rushing touchdowns last season and we’ve all heard numerous times how he used to be a wide receiver in college. I foresee there being plenty of scoring – as do the books, since they set the total at 52 – and think there’s a much higher chance than 19% (based off the +425 odds) that Tannehill scrambles for one or sneaks one in.
- Singletary anytime touchdown (+110) – 1 unit
- AJ Brown anytime touchdown (+120) – 0.5 units
- Ryan Tannehill anytime touchdown (+425) – 0.5 units
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD’s Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD’s score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.