Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Game 3 Prediction, Odds & Player Props (Apr. 27)

Apr 24, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro (14) drivers the ball against Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) in the second half during game two of the first round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

• We’ve made our Celtics vs Heat Game 3 prediction for Saturday night
• The NBA Playoff odds favor Boston to take a 2-1 series lead
• Read below for Celtics vs Heat Game 3 prediction, odds and player props

The top-seeded Boston Celtics head to Miami to face the eighth-seeded Heat in a pivotal Game 3 of their first-round NBA playoff series on Saturday, April 27 at 6 PM ET on TNT.

After the Celtics dominated Game 1, the Heat bounced back with a record-setting three-point shooting performance to even the series 1-1.

Boston opened as an 8-point road favorite with an over/under of 205.5 points, but the line has since moved to Celtics -9 with a total of 203.

Celtics vs Heat Game 3 Odds

In the Celtics vs Heat odds for Game 3, Boston is a -440 moneyline favorite, giving them an 81.5% implied probability to take a 2-1 series lead.

 

Odds as of April 27, 2024, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Learn how to deposit at DraftKings to wager on the NBA Playoffs. 

Celtics Betting Outlook

Boston suffered a surprising 111-101 loss in Game 2 as a heavy 14.5-point home favorite after routing the Heat in the series opener. The Celtics couldn’t keep up with Miami’s scorching outside shooting, allowing the Heat to drain a franchise playoff record 23 three-pointers at a 53.5% clip. Boston only made 12 threes of their own (37.5%) after sinking 22 in Game 1.

All-Star forwards Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown continue to lead the way for the Celtics. Tatum is averaging 25.5 points, nine rebounds and 6.5 assists through the first two games, while Brown is putting up 25 points and eight boards per contest.

However, the Celtics need more from big man Kristaps Porzingis. After an efficient 18-point outing in the opener, Porzingis was held to just eight points on 1-9 shooting in Game 2. Getting Porzingis more involved as a third option will be key.

The Celtics had the NBA’s best regular-season record at 57-25 and were impressive 27-14 on the road. They also have a strong recent history in Miami, winning their last four games at the Heat.

In the playoffs, Boston is 6-0 straight up and ATS since 2006 when coming off a double-digit loss as a road favorite, winning those games by an average of 20.5 points. The Celtics are battle-tested and built for the postseason.

Heat Betting Outlook

After a dismal showing in Game 1, the Heat displayed their trademark resiliency with an upset win in Boston thanks to their three-point barrage. Tyler Herro led the way with 24 points and a game-high 14 assists, while also knocking down six threes.

Bam Adebayo added 21 points and ten rebounds. The Heat’s role players also stepped up, with Caleb Martin scoring 21 and Max Strus chipping in 16.

Bam Adebayo showed us again why he is one of the best 2 way players in the league finishing with:

21 PTS (9/13 FGs)
10 REBS
2 ASTS
+20

When the Heat needed a bucket Bam was able to provide relief points pic.twitter.com/jFl7W7dWOy

— taskmaster (@bjay93_) April 25, 2024

However, Miami is still without their leader, Jimmy Butler, who is out for several weeks with a knee injury suffered in the play-in tournament. The Heat are also missing Terry Rozier, who has been a key scorer for them this season. Overcoming those absences again will be a tall task, especially against a motivated Celtics team.

The Heat’s regular-season home record was a disappointing 23-18, worse than their road record of 24- 17. As a home underdog, Miami went just 1-9 against the spread while being outscored by nearly 13 points per game.

In their last 12 playoff games as a home dog, the Heat are 0-12 straight up and 1-11 ATS. The NBA team trends are not in their favor here.

Celtics vs Heat Player Props

In the Celtics vs Heat player props for Game 3, Jayson Tatum is projected to record the most points, as he’s sporting an over/under point total of 26.5.

Celtics vs Heat Game 3 Prediction

While the Heat showed a lot of heart to pull off the Game 2 upset, it’s hard to see them replicating that scorching shooting performance, especially against a locked-in Celtics defense. Boston has thrived in this spot historically and will be laser-focused on re-establishing control of the series.

The absence of Butler and Rozier is a lot for the Heat to overcome against a more talented and experienced Celtics squad. Tatum and Brown give Boston a dynamic one-two punch that Miami will struggle to contain. Look for Porzingis also to bounce back as the Celtics make it a point to get him more involved.

The Celtics are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games as a road playoff favorite of four points or more. They’ve won those games by an average of 20.5 points. Given Miami’s 1-9 ATS mark as a home underdog this season, the trends heavily favor Boston to cover the spread.

BOS vs MIA Game 3 Pick:

 

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