Jimmy Garoppolo under pressure throwing

Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers dropped their season opener to the Arizona Cardinals. Photo from @NBCS49ers (Twitter).

  • Tampa Bay and San Francisco’s Super Bowl odds slightly dove after Week 1 losses to divisional opponents
  • On the other hand, the Green Bay Packers handled its business Week 1 against the Minnesota Vikings and won 43-34
  • Read below to see if we think these teams are elite Super Bowl contenders worthy of some level of future consideration

After the dust settles on Week 1 of the NFL season, it’s pretty typical to take stock of where the trendy Super Bowl contenders sit. Avoiding the top tier of contenders, that second group is where the value lies and where the San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers all found their Super Bowl odds coming into the year.

And even with the Bucs and 49ers stumbling, bettors aren’t over reacting after just one week, though they are more impressed with winning, as seen by the Packers’ odds shortening after offensive fireworks in Minnesota.

NFL Super Bowl Odds

Team Preseason Odds Post Week 1 Odds
San Francisco 49ers +900 +1100
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1500 +1700
Green Bay Packers +3100 +2600

*odds taken September 13

Both Tampa Bay and San Francisco found themselves in divisional matchups, which are hard to judge from a gambling perspective. Since these teams know each other so well, these results can somewhat be taken with a grain of salt. Throw in the added factor of no preseason games and just 10 padded practices there needs to be a sense of caution going forward.

Yes, the Packers rolled pretty comfortably over the Vikings, but it’s in the same category. Familiar divisional opponents with a lack of practice time and no real game reps before Sunday afternoon.

Super Bowl Hangover?

Starting with the 49ers, who ended up blowing a three-point lead to an Arizona Cardinals team that was a trendy preseason pick. In the grand scheme of things, the 49ers were right there at the end of the game and had a chance to win.

Throw in the fact that tight end George Kittle was a little dinged up and I’m not too worried about the defending NFC champions. Sure, you’d have liked to see Jimmy Garropolo a touch more sharp in Week 1, but we all know that he’s going to ease into the offense as the season develops. A slightly better throw to Trent Taylor late in the fourth quarter and the 49ers win this game.

The 49ers have an elite play caller, strong defense and quality run game. Don’t misconstrue a frisky division opponent as a sign for concern. I still consider San Francisco one of the two best teams in the NFC with the Seattle Seahawks.  It’s hard to make it back to the Super Bowl after losing, but if a team can do it, it’s these 49ers.

Brady’s Blunder?

Again, it’s hard to make large scale judgements after one week. But, I will say Tom Brady didn’t look great in his first game as a Buccaneer. There’s a lack of familiarity for Brady with Bruce Arians’ offense and a pick-six was solely his fault for misreading an out route.

The Buccaneers’ attractiveness as a future is tied solely to how Brady plays. There’s no elite defense, no special running back to control the clock. If the Michigan product is only going to be average, Tampa Bay isn’t appealing as a Super Bowl pick.

I consider the Buccaneers a tier below the 49ers and Saints.

We Doubted Aaron Rodgers?

After the Packers’ first two draft picks, a quarterback and running back, there was conjecture that the team that went 13-3 was due for regression. Against the Vikings, it didn’t show. Aaron Rodgers linked up with Davante Adams for 14 catches, 156 yards and two touchdowns.

While the Vikings didn’t have anyone to match up with Adams in coverage head-to-head, it’s important to keep the Packers’ Super Bowl hopes in context. The team’s defense and a lack of secondary targets are what held it back from falling short of the big game last season.

While Adams cooked today against the Vikings, it remains to be seen if any other Packers receiver can create plays for an offense that struggled through the air.

What’s It Worth?

Of these three teams, even after Week 1’s odds adjustment, the only one I’d seriously consider is the 49ers. Tampa Bay and Green Bay both have flaws that San Francisco doesn’t. We know the 49ers can make it to the Super Bowl and get pretty close to winning, I don’t know if the same is true about either the Packers or Buccaneers.

I believe in Kyle Shanahan as a head coach and you should too.

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