Auston Matthews reacts, Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews celebrates in the direction of fans after scoring in overtime of the team’s NHL hockey game against the Dallas Stars, Thursday, April 7, 2022, in Dallas. The Maple Leafs won 4-3. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

  • The Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs faceoff on Saturday, April 9th
  • The Maple Leafs are listed as huge home favorites in the Saturday NHL odds
  • Read below for Canadiens vs Leafs odds, picks and predictions

The Montreal Canadiens (20-40-11) and Toronto Maple Leafs (46-19-6) square off for the final time this season on Saturday, April 9th. The puck drops at 7:00 PM EST at Scotiabank Arena.

The Maple Leafs are listed as very heavy home favorites in the Saturday NHL odds. The total is set at 6.5 for a game that features the NHL’s leading goalscorer in Auston Matthews.

Let’s take a look at the Canadiens vs Leafs odds and offer you our NHL best bet.

Canadiens vs Leafs Odds

Game Time (EST) Team Puck Line Total Moneyline
Saturday, April 9 Montreal Canadiens +2.5 (-125) O 6.5 (-140) +330
7:00 p.m. Toronto Maple Leafs -2.5 (+104) U 6.5 (+114) -430

Odds as of April 8 at Caesars Sportsbook

Ontario online sports betting markets list the Leafs at +104 odds on the puckline, while the Canadiens are -125 to keep the game within three goals. Toronto’s heavy -430 moneyline price means they have 81.13% implied probability to win.

Leafs Heavy Favorites in Saturday NHL Odds

The Maple Leafs are heavily favored to beat the Canadiens in the Saturday NHL odds. Toronto is  6-0-1 in their past seven games after a 4-3 overtime win over Dallas on Thursday. Auston Matthews netted his 55th and 56th goals to set the Maple Leafs’ single-season record. Matthews is also dominating the Rocket Richard odds.

Toronto has been one of the NHL’s best home teams this season, posting a 25-7-2 record at Scotiabank Arena. One of those victories was a 2-1 win over the Habs in their season opener back in October. The home team has won four of the past five meetings in this rivalry.

The Leafs are being carried by the dynamic duo of Matthews and Mitch Marner. Matthews has scored 49 goals in his past 49 games, while Mitch Marner is riding a 12-game point streak in which he’s recorded eight goals and 19 assists.

Toronto has the second-highest scoring offense in the NHL, but their defense and goaltending is still shaky. Saturday’s projected starting NHL goalie is Jack Campbell, who has allowed 12 goals in four starts since returning from injury.

Canadiens Betting Analysis as Road Underdogs

The Canadiens are listed as +330 road underdogs versus Toronto, which gives them only 23.2% implied probability to win. The Habs started strong under new coach Martin St. Louis, but are only 4-5-3 in their past 12 games.

Montreal is coming off a solid 7-4 road victory over New Jersey in which they took advantage of some very poor goaltending. Despite the win, Montreal still owns a lackluster 10-20-7 road record. That’s part of why the Habs have already been eliminated from playoff contention.

The Canadiens rank bottom-five in the NHL in both offense and defense. Their power play is second-last at 13.7% efficiency, which is an issue going up against Toronto’s top-ranked PP unit.

Nick Suzuki leads the Habs in scoring with 53 points, while Cole Caufield has 16 goals in 26 games since St. Louis took over as coach. Caufield is someone to watch, as the sniper has scored four times in seven career games vs Toronto.

Montreal’s projected starting goalie for Saturday is Jake Allen, who is 9-20-4 with a .904 save percentage and 3.29 GAA. Defenseman Jeff Petry could return to the lineup versus Toronto after missing seven games with a lower-body injury.

Canadiens vs Leafs Pick & Prediction

The Canadiens may be eliminated from playoff contention, but they are sure to be amped for their final meeting with Toronto. Although the Leafs won the last time these teams  faced off at Scotiabank Arena, the Habs took the other two meetings in Montreal.

Canadiens vs Leafs Recent Results

Date Home-Away Money Line Puck Line Over/Under
03/26/2022 MTL 4 – TOR 2 MTL MTL Under
02/21/2022 MTL 5 – TOR 2 MTL MTL Over
10/13/2021 TOR 2 – MTL 1 TOR MTL Under
05/31/2021 TOR 1 – MTL 3 MTL MTL Under
05/29/2021 MTL 3 – TOR 2 OT MTL MTL Under

Aside from recent history, everything points to Toronto in this matchup. They have the league’s hottest goal scorer and much better advanced metrics. Over the past month, the Leafs rank top-10 in corsi and high-danger chances, while the Habs rank bottom-five for both.

Here are some betting trends to note for Canadiens vs Leafs:

  • Over is 20-7-2 in Maple Leafs last 29 games as a favorite
  • Over is 4-1 in Canadiens last 5 games as an underdog
  • Canadiens are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings

Canadiens vs Leafs should be another high-scoring matchup at Scotiabank Arena. Both teams feature talented snipers and netminders not playing with confidence. Look for the Matthews and Suzuki lines respectively, to light the lamp several times Saturday.

Bet Over 6.5 goals in the Saturday NHL odds at Caesars Sportsbook.

Pick: Over 6.5 (-140)

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Brady Trettenero

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