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Apr 30, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (45) drives to the basket against Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) during the second half in game five of the first round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
- Facing elimination, the Orlando Magic host the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 6 on Friday night
- The home team has won all five games of the series so far, and covered the spread in four of five
- Below, see the Cleveland Cavaliers vs Orlando Magic predictions, odds, props, and injury news for May 3
The Orlando Magic (47-38, 31-12 home, 53-34 ATS) nearly did the unthinkable against the Cleveland Cavaliers (51-36, 22-21 away, 40-45-2 ATS) on Tuesday night: win a road game. But the Magic ultimately fell 104-103 in Cleveland and now trail the Cavs 3-2 heading back to Orlando for Game 6 on Friday night (7:10 pm ET) at the Kia Center.
Cavaliers vs Magic Predictions for Game 6
The home team dominated the first four games of this series, winning each one by at least ten points before Orlando finally kept Game 5 close. Orlando’s dominance on their home court dates back to the regular season, when they went 29-12 straight-up at the Kia Center. The Cavaliers were just 22-19 on the road, and are now just one game over .500 away including their two postseason setbacks.
The advanced metrics show that Orlando has been the considerably better team in the series, as a whole, despite trailing 3-2. The Magic have a Net Rating of +8.5, fourth-best behind Boston, OKC, and Minnesota, which went a combined 16-1 in the first round. The Magic have dominated the glass, grabbing 52.1% of all available rebounds. They have outrebounded the Cavaliers in three straight games and combined for a 137-100 edge on the boards over the past 12 quarters.
Cleveland’s three-point shooting proved the difference in their narrow Game 5 victory. The Cavs went 13-of-37 from beyond the arc (35.1%) while the Magic were just 9-of-31 (29%), allowing Cleveland to eke out a narrow victory despite shooting at a worse percentage from the floor (46.2% to 43.2%) and scoring fewer points from the free-throw line (22 to 15).
Cleveland’s advantage from three is not likely to last in Game 6. The Cavs have the second-worst true-shooting percentage of all 16 playoff teams (only ahead of New Orleans) and they shot just 23.5% from beyond the arc in Games 3 and 4 in Orlando.
The Magic are going to win Game 6 going away and force a decisive Game 7 back in Cleveland on Sunday night.
CLE vs ORL Game 6 pick: Orlando Magic -3.5 (-115)
Best Cavaliers vs Magic Game 6 Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | +3.5 (-105) | +140 | Over 200.5 (-110) |
| Orlando Magic | -3.5 (-115) | -168 | Under 200.5 (-110) |
Odds as of May 3 at BetMGM. See the available BetMGM promos to wager on Cavaliers/Magic on Friday.
The Magic are listed as four-point favorites at most sportsbooks, but BetMGM has the line at Orlando -3.5 (-115) and -168 on the moneyline, which is the line that I’m pouncing on. There is a little fluctuation in the game total, as well. Bet365 has the highest total at 201 while BetMGM and FanDuel have it at 200.5. DraftKings and Caesars are at the low end, listing the total at 200 even.
Games 1 and 2 of the series – 97-83 and 96-86 home wins for Cleveland – both stayed under their totals (206.5 and 205) by wide margins, as did Game 4. Games 3 and 5 cashed for over bettors. The teams are averaging just 194.8 PPG combined through the first five games of the series.
CLE vs ORL Player Props
| Player | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Three-Pointers Made |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Garland (CLE) | 17.5 (Ov +114 | Un -135) | 3.5 (Ov +136 | Un -162) | 5.5 (Ov -135 | Un +114) | 2.5 (Ov +150 | Un -180) |
| Donovan Mitchell (CLE) | 25.5 (Ov -102 | Un -118) | 4.5 (Ov -130 | Un +110) | 4.5 (Ov -142 | Un +120) | 2.5 (Ov -112 | Un -108) |
| Evan Mobley (CLE) | 15.5 (Ov -100 | Un -120) | 10.5 (Ov +130 | Un -155) | 2.5 (Ov -118 | Un -102) | 0.5 (Ov +120 | Un -142) |
| Franz Wagner (ORL) | 19.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) | 6.5 (Ov +114 | Un -135) | 4.5 (Ov -155 | Un +130) | 1.5 (Ov +110 | Un -130) |
| Jalen Suggs (ORL) | 13.5 (Ov -102 | Un -118) | 3.5 (Ov -135 | Un +114) | 3.5 (Ov +140 | Un -166) | 1.5 (Ov -162 | Un +136) |
| Jarrett Allen (CLE) | 14.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) | 10.5 (Ov -112 | Un -108) | 2.5 (Ov +150 | Un -180) | OFF |
| Max Strus (CLE) | 9.5 (Ov -125 | Un +105) | 4.5 (Ov -125 | Un +105) | 3.5 (Ov +120 | Un -142) | 1.5 (Ov -162 | Un +136) |
| Paolo Banchero (ORL) | 24.5 (Ov -112 | Un -108) | 7.5 (Ov -120 | Un -100) | 4.5 (Ov -148 | Un +124) | 1.5 (Ov -142 | Un +120) |
| Wendell Carter Jr (ORL) | 8.5 (Ov -100 | Un -120) | 6.5 (Ov -142 | Un +120) | OFF | 0.5 (Ov -155 | Un +130) |
NBA player props from DraftKings on May 3, 2024.
The player props for Cavaliers/Magic Game 6 show Paolo Banchero’s point total up to 24.5, compared to just 21.5 for Game 4. Banchero dropped a game-high 39 points in Tuesday’s setback and is averaging 24.8 PPG for the series. Donovan Mitchell has the highest point total on the board at 25.5 but is averaging just 22.4 PPG for the series.
Both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen have rebound total of 10.5. Allen is averaging 13.8 RPG in the postseason and recorded 10.5 RPG in the regular season. Mobley, on the other hand, is averaging just 8.4 RPG in the playoffs and finished the regular season at 9.4 RPG. Mobley’s curiously high rebound total is likely motivated by the injury reports for Game 6.
Cavaliers vs Magic Game 6 Injury Reports
Cavs center Jarrett Allen (17.0 PPG, 13.8 RPG in the postseason) is on the Game 6 injury report, listed as questionable with a rib issue. Allen had 21 points and nine rebounds in just 29 minutes on Tuesday.
Allen is the only player of real significant on Cleveland’s injury report. Craig Porter, Dean Wade, and Ty Jerome are also on the list, but none of that trio has played a minute in the playoffs.
The only name on the Orlando injury report is Gary Harris (3.8 PPG, 2.0 RPG in the postseason), who is questionable with hamstring injury.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.