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Screenshot 2023 09 04 15.36.02

We are starting to hear calls for the Labour and Lib Dem parties to agree on a single Anti -Tory candidate for the mid-Beds by-election. This, of course, has been created by the resignation of Nadine Dorries

On the face of it this seems a logical suggestion but it is hard to see Labour and the LDs agreeing on a deal.

Starmer’s party would argue that it came second in the seat at the general election and would therefore stand a better chance.

Ed Davey’s party would point in response that they have a better chance given their performance in by-elections this Parliament. The chart above shows the net gains and losses in Westminster by-elections and as can be seen they are well ahead.

What is significant is that half of the LD gains have come in seats where they were in third place behind at the general election. Although LAB have made two gains during this Parliament they also had a loss at Hartlepool in 2020.

Is it going to happen? I cannot see either party standing aside and the LDs remain betting favourites.

Mike Smithson

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