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Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are 5.5-point home favorites over the Detroit Lions

Aug 26, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) stands alongside assistant head coach Dave Toub (left) during the second half against the Cleveland Browns at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Kansas City Chiefs are 5.5-point home favorites over the Detroit Lions in the NFL season opener for both clubs on Thursday, September 7
  • Kansas City opened as the 6.5-point chalk, but an injury to All-Pro TE Travis Kelce is impacting the line
  • Detroit was 5-2 against the spread as a road underdog last season. Are they a good bet in the Week 1 Lions vs Chiefs picks?

The story of the kickoff to the NFL regular season between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions is quickly becoming about who isn’t going to be playing in the game and how that will impact the Lions vs Chiefs odds.

Already expecting to be without All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones due to a contract holdout, the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs are now likely to be missing a second All-Pro. Tight end Travis Kelce hyperextended his knee in practice on Tuesday and is listed as questionable for the game.

These developments are impacting the betting line on this game and how people are making their Lions vs Chiefs picks. Kansas City was set as the 6.5-point home chalk in the opening line. Today, those odds have shortened to Chiefs -5.5. The Lions were an impressive 12-5 against the spread during the 2022 NFL season.

Let’s look deeper into the Lions vs Chiefs odds and offer you our prediction for this NFL Week 1 showdown.

Lions vs Chiefs Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Detroit Lions +190 +5.5 (-115) Over 52.5 (-112)
Kansas City Chiefs -230 -5.5 (-105) Under 52.5 (-108)

In the Lions vs Chiefs odds, the Chiefs are -230 moneyline favorites, giving them a 69.70% implied win probability. The total is set at 52.5 points. A dozen Kansas City games last season showed a total of 50+ points.

Odds as of September 6 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Be sure to claim a FanDuel promo code to bet on Lions vs Chiefs and other Week 1 NFL action.

The Lions haven’t won in Kansas City since a 7-6 verdict on October 23, 1988. Detroit is 1-7 straight up all-time at KC. Overall, the Chiefs are 6-2 SU in the last eight games against Detroit.

Kickoff for this game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday, September 6 is set for 8:20pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by NBC and by DAZN in Canada.

Lions vs Chiefs Betting Splits

The people are divided when it comes to the NFL public betting splits on this game. When it comes to the spread splits, perhaps it’s the shortening of the line, but the public is with KC. The Chiefs are garnering 66% of handle and 64% of bets. Kansas City has covered in three of the last four games. Moneyline splits are of two minds. The handle is 54% with Detroit, but the bets are going 63% on Kansas City. The Lions are 5-1 SU over their past six games.

Total wagering is also showing division. There’s 53% of handle going with the under. At the same time, 60% of bets like the over. The Chiefs were 4-8 last season when the total was set at 50+ points. In games last season with a total of 50+ points, Detroit was 4-2.

Kansas City is the chalk in the Super Bowl odds at +600. The Lions are set as the +140 favorite to win the NFC North title in the NFL divisional odds.

Lions vs Chiefs Injury Report

While the verdict on Kelce isn’t good news, there’s a better report regarding WR Kadarius Toney (knee). He’s been upgraded from questionable to probable.

The Lions are reporting no injuries among starters. WR Jameson Williams is under NFL suspension for violating the league’s gambling regulations.

Absence Of Jones Can’t Be Overstated

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is reporting that no progress has been made in contract negotiations with Jones. Coming off a career year, Jones is set as the co-seventh betting choice in NFL DPOY odds at +2500.

In 2022, Jones finished with 15.5 sacks, 46 pressures, 29 QB hits and 17 tackles for loss, all placing him among the top seven in the NFL. ESPN Analytics rated him with the best pass rush position win rate of any defensive lineman. Pro Football Focus graded out Jones as the top interior lineman in the NFL.

Will Goff vs Mahomes Light It Up Again?

This will be the second time that KC’s Patrick Mahomes and Detroit’s Jared Goff will go head-to-head. They met previously in the Week 11 MNF game in 2018 when Goff led the Los Angeles Rams to a 54-51 win over Mahomes and the Chiefs in LA.

Mahomes was 33-of-46 for 478 yards and six touchdowns. Goff completed 31-of-49 passes for 413 yards and four TDs.

Caesars Sportsbook is offering a Mahomes-Goff air it out boost on this game. If each QB records a completion over 39.5 yards, the prop will pay out at odds of +350. Check out that boost and the top Caesars promo code here.

Detroit vs Kansas City Prediction

This is the fourth straight season in which the defending Super Bowl champs are featured in the season-opening game. Those Super Bowl-winning teams are 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS in the previous three years.

Detroit’s success as an ATS team under head coach Dan Campbell is well documented. The Lions are 23-11 ATS during Campbell’s two seasons in charge. They might not win this game outright, but should cover in your Lions vs Chiefs picks.

Lions vs Chiefs Picks: Detroit Lions +5.5 (-110)

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Robert Duff

Sports Writer


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