Money Talk continues to highlight the Betfair Sportsbook big-money moves to keep you in the loop. This section will now highlight market moves between 1:00 am and 9:00 am.
The market says LAY! – Doncaster
Which horse is the Betfair Sportsbook market suggesting to Lay?
16:15 Doncaster – Harrovian 15/8 OUT 11/4
With strong morning market support for Secret Protector, and Sinjaari still holding his position at the top of the market, Harrovian has been friendless and is the markets suggestion to LAY.
Mark your card – Doncaster
The Betfair Sportsbook is paying extra places today!
Today’s opening 13:10 contest is for female Pro-Am jockeys, and with it comes conditions to the race as follows: Riders who, before September 6th, 2021, have not ridden more than 95 winners under any Rules of Racing 3lb; 50 such winners 5lb; 20 such winners 7lb.
Only one favourite has obliged in the 14:10 Weatherbys Scientific £200,000 2-Y-O Stakes in the last ten years. The races weights are determined by the median price of its sire’s yearlings sold at the main public auction sales in Europe and North America during 2020.
Keep Varian on side at Doncaster
Trainer Roger Varian is a force to be reckoned with at Doncaster, operating at a 25% strike rate and is profitable to follow, £48.18 profit to a £1 level stake.
He also does well with his two-year-olds at this venue (9-50 18%), so his runner in the 14:10 Weatherbys Scientific £200,000 2-Y-O Stakes Jazz Club 6.05/1 must be respected as the trainer bids for his third win in the race.
The 14:40 May Hill Stakes has had a significant impact on the 1,000 Guineas market in recent years and has seen five of the last ten winners go on to run in the classic. None have done the double in the last ten years.
Free Wind 3.55/2 ridden by Frankie Dettori and is the current favourite for the 15:15 Hippo Pro3 Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes. Still, outside of Stradivarius, Dettori is only one for 19 when riding over today’s trip of 1m6f since 2018.
Only two favourites have won the 15:45 Cazoo Handicap, and both were trained by Roger Varian, who has no runners in the contest today. Modern News 2.757/4 for Charlie Appleby is your favourite today.
Jump jockeys let loose on the flat
Over at Epsom, the jump jockeys will saddle up on the flat for the 14:55 Emplas Express Jump Jockeys Derby Handicap. Familiar names such as Paddy Brennan, David Bass and Harry Cobden will all try their hand at flat racing!
Jamie Moore has won the race twice previously and will attempt to continue his domination with Tralee Hills 5.59/2. A great spectacle, but this is a novelty race, and punters should tread with caution.
Horses for courses
This section highlights horses that have won twice or more at today’s tracks and could be in with a chance today.
13:10 Doncaster – Giogiobbo – Has won here three times (75%)
14:35 Chepstow – Major Valentine – Has won here five times (33%)
14:35 Chepstow – Tawaafoq – Has won here four times (40%)
14:55 Epsom – Berrahri – Has won here three times (43%)
15:55 Epsom – Mythical Madness – Has won here twice (25%)
16:35 Chepstow – David’s Beauty – Has won here five times (36%)
Weighted to go well
“Weighted to go well” highlights horses running that are more than 10lbs below their last winning handicap mark.
14:35 Chepstow – Rania – Has won off 73 runs off 57
14:55 Epsom – Berrahri – Has won off 82 runs off 70
14:55 Epsom – Koeman – Has won off 93 runs off 80
15:05 Chepstow – Sir Roderic – Has won off 69 runs off 55
16:35 Chepstow – David’s Beauty – Has won off 55 runs off 45
16:35 Chepstow – Coronation Cottage – Has won off 64 runs off 53
18:00 Chelmsford – Jackstar – Has won off 79 runs off 65
This section highlights a trainer, owner or jockey who is in excellent current form and their runners or rides for the day.
Jockey Andrea Atzeni is operating at a 29% strike rate in the last 14 days scoring with eight of his 28 rides. Today he heads to Epsom for four rides.
Today’s furthest traveller is trainer Jim Goldie who makes the 245 mile journey to Doncaster with Call Me Ginger in the 13:10 Silk Series Handicap.
Race of the day
Today’s 15:15 Hippo Pro3 Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes at Doncaster looks a wide-open renewal with any number of horses easily made a case for but there looks to be a bit of value down the pecking order.
Free Wind heads up the market after an impressive display in a Group 3 at Deauville, where the winning margin doesn’t do her performance the justice it deserves. That came over 1m4f and today represents a step up in trip for the first time and into the unknown.
The Deauville race was slowly run, so her stamina is no given for this trip. She is improving and represents a powerful stable. Still, her current 3.259/4 price tag looks might short in a competitive event, especially given she was outstayed by the much bigger priced Golden Pass on her penultimate start at HQ.
Golden Pass has shaped as though this distance would suit her on multiple occasions, and she is a top of the ground filly. Given she has already taken the scalp of the favourite, she represents a good bit of value if forgiving her latest flop at Newbury, in which she was too bad to be true (bloods were wrong).
There are very few negatives with her chances, especially if she is improving again for this new trip. She has had Eileendover, Urban Artist and the above mentioned Free Wind in behind before and her price just looks wrong. Providing all eight goes to post, she must hit the frame.
Tribal Craft may be best with some ease in the ground, but she is undoubtedly the form horse in this race. This will be the quickest ground she has run on if taking her chance, but she was eye-catching on good ground in the Ebor when not seen to best effect and finding traffic from her hold up position.
The ground is a big question mark given she is only one for six on good or better, and that came in a three runner non-event.
She is tempting, but these are not ideal conditions.
Timeform out to bookie bash again, this time at Doncaster
The Timeform team head to Doncaster and offer up their three best bets of the day.
Read Timeform tips here.
It drives me insane when people attempt to build a case for a two-year-old horse, and their main angle is that the horse has a Group entry. While it is, of course, interesting, it’s worthless to the horse’s chance on the day of the race.
For example, in today’s 13:40 at Doncaster, Daiquiri Francais has a Group 1 entry in the Cheveley Park later this month.
When some people hear this, they will automatically have a bet, but they need to know that 100’s of two-year-olds have Group entries for later in the season because they are blooming two-year-olds and could be anything.
Baby Alya was a prime example earlier this season. She had a Coronation entry. She is still rated 77 today.
If someone is building a case for a two-year-old solely because they have Group entries later in the season, please look for someone else to follow.
On a lighter note, one to keep on the right side of going forward that ran at Doncaster yesterday is the impressive winner Ishra. The time figure wasn’t much to go crazy about but how he effortlessly cruised through the race marked him down as a potential classic contender for next season.
Until tomorrow, be lucky.