A..J. Griffin

Duke forward A.J. Griffin (21) is congratulaed by his teammartes as he comes back to the bench during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against North Carolina Saturday, Feb. 5, 2022, in Chapel Hill, N.C. He was the leading scorer in the game. (AP Photo/Chris Seward)

  • The public is heavily betting the over in both 2022 Final Four games
  • Both favorites are getting a lot of love on the moneyline
  • Below, see the public betting splits for Duke vs UNC and Kansas vs Villanova

The Final Four takes place this evening at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, starting with #2 Villanova vs #1 Kansas at 6:09 pm ET, followed by #8 North Carolina vs #2 Duke at 8:49 pm ET.

The table below shows the public betting splits for both games, including the ATS, moneyline, and over/under handle percentages.

Final Four Public Betting Splits

Team Spread % Handle Moneyline % Handle Total % Handle
Villanova +4 52% +165 44% Over 133 74%
Kansas -4 48% -195 56% Under 133 26%
Team Spread % Handle Moneyline % Handle Total % Handle
North Carolina +4 44% +160 40% Over 151 65%
Duke -4 56% -190 60% Under 151 35%

Odds and percentages as of April 2, 2022, at DraftKings Sportsbook

Public Loving the Over in Both Final Four Games

The public is heavily betting over the total in both games. The Kansas vs Villanova game total opened a full point lower at 132, yet the public is still betting 74% of all money on over 133.

Betting the over here means confidence that Kansas is going to dictate the game and pace of play. The Jayhawks play at the 61st-fastest tempo in the country, while Villanova is 345th.

The over in Duke vs UNC is getting a similar amount of love from the betting public. The UNC/Duke total also opened a full point lower at 150, but over 151 has garnered 65% of all the handle on the game total.

This is likely inspired by the teams’ two regular-season meetings, both of which surpassed 151. When they met in Chapel Hill in early February, they combined for 154 points in an 87-67 Duke victory.

In the rematch in Durham on March 5, they scored a whopping 175 points as UNC took a huge 94-81 upset in Mike Krzyzewski’s last game at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Public Backing Moneyline Favorites Kansas and Duke

The splits on the point spread and moneyline are not nearly as drastic as the splits on the game totals. That said, the public is still riding with the favorites – as it often does – on the moneyline.

Kansas is getting 56% of the betting handle is a -195 favorite over Villanova, who will be without starting guard Justin Moore.

Duke is getting a full 60% of the moneyline betting handle as a -190 favorite over their arch-rival tonight.

If you look back at the NCAAB public betting splits from the tournament and regular season, you will notice a distinct trend of the public putting the vast majority of its moneyline betting handle on the favorite. That also holds true for the ATS handle, but if you also look at the public’s ATS betting record on that page, you will notice that siding with the public was not a winning play this season.


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Sascha Paruk

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