The focus of our football props column falls on West Brom v Nottingham Forest in the Championship on Friday with another foray into the shots market.
West Brom v Nottingham Forest
Friday 26 November, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Football
Few Championship defenders have carried as a big a goal threat as Kyle Bartley this season and he’s the focus of this column on Friday night.
The towering centre-back causes plenty of problems from set-pieces and West Brom have won more corners than any other side in the division – they average close to seven per game which is a full corner more than all bar one other team.
Overall, only Fulham have had more shots per game than the Baggies and even a recent poor run hasn’t seen their shot figures tumble – their last four games have seen shot tallies of 25-20-9-17.
Bartley has managed 2+ shots in his last five games and that’s the angle I’m going to take here at 11/8. In total, he’s landed this in seven of 18 matches.
A strong alternative is to back the same player for a shot on target at evens, something he’s managed in 11 of those 18.
I know punters often prefer a bigger price and I did try to find some value about the Forest players in the same market.
However, most of their men look short. Joe Lolley and Philip Zinckernagel both like to get a shot away but neither is odds-against for 3+ in this game. Given West Brom boast the most miserly defence in terms of shots conceded (just 8.26 per game), those prices aren’t for me.
One Bet Builder possibility is to effectively lay the hosts by backing Draw/Forest in the double chance market.
West Brom have won just one of their last five (and have lost four of nine), while Forest have been beaten just the once in their last 12.
Adding that option gets you close to 9/2 but I’m rather put off by the fact the visitors have lost five of six against the current top seven.
I’ll therefore stick with the smaller price, hoping Bartley continues his recent ways.