Hofstra guard Aaron Estrada reacting after getting fouled by an Arkansas defender

Hofstra guard Aaron Estrada (4) reacts after being fouled by Arkansas guard Davonte Davis (4) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game, Saturday, Dec. 18, 2021, in Little Rock, Ark. (AP Photo/Michael Woods)

  • Towson is a 3.5-point favorite against Hofstra on Tuesday
  • Hofstra is 7-1 straight up, 5-3 ATS in the last eight meetings
  • Read below for analysis and a betting prediction

Towson (10-5, 1-1 Colonial) is a 3.5-point home favorite in a Colonial Athletic Association game against Hofstra at 5 pm ET Tuesday on the CBS Sports Network. The line moved a full point toward Hofstra immediately after it was posted.

Hofstra (9-6, 1-1 Colonial) will play the last of five straight road games at Towson, eight miles north of downtown Baltimore. The Pride has won three of the first four, losing only to CAA surprise leader William & Mary in a 63-62 upset Dec. 29.

Hofstra vs Towson Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Hofstra Pride +165 +3.5 (-110) Over 147.5 (-110)
Towson Tigers -140 -3.5 (-110) Under 147.5 (-110)

Odds from BetMGM on Jan. 10.

 

Towson and Hofstra are the two highest-rated Colonial Athletic Association teams in both the NCAA net rankings and KenPom adjusted efficiency margin. Towson. is No. 82 in the NET rankings, while Hofstra sits at No. 94. Towson is 110th in adjusted efficiency and Hofstra is 122nd.

Hofstra has the league’s best victory this season, an 89-81 road win over Arkansas on Dec. 18. The Pride also had a Quad 1 victory at Monmouth four days later. Hofstra has played six games against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams, tied with Elon for the most among CAA teams. Towson is one of three CAA teams without a Quad 4 loss.

Hofstra was picked to finish fifth in the preseason poll (Delaware was first) and Towson was picked eighth.

Spreading the Points

Hofstra coach Speedy Claxton likes to share the ball on the perimeter, part of the reason five different Pride players have scored at least 20 points in a game this season.

Oregon transfer guard 6’4 Aaron Estrada and holdover guard 6’2 Jalen Ray lead the conference with five 20-point games apiece. Pride guard 5-10 Zach Cooks has three such games, as do Towson starters guard 6’5 Cam Holden and guard 6’4 Nicolas Timberlake.

Cooks leads five Pride double-figure scorers, averaging 16.1 points per game. Ray, who has 47 3-pointers, is next at 15.4 and one of five Pride players with at least 20 threes. Cooks has missed three of the last four games, including Arkansas and James Madison, with an undisclosed injury.

Estrada (14.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.9 assists) is reigning CAA Player of the Week after getting 20 points, seven rebounds and seven assists in an 87-80 victory Sunday at James Madison, which was ranked No. 17 in the collegeinsider,com mid-major poll. Estrada played all 40 minutes in that game, which was James Madison’s first home loss.

Opposing Strengths Collide

Hofstra leads the CAA in scoring (79.3), free throw percentage (78.5), assists (16.6),, fewest turnovers (10.3) and turnover margin (plus4.9) and is third in field goal percentage (46.3). At the same time Hofstra is eighth in scoring defense (72.1) and ninth with a minus-1.4 rebound margin.

Towson leads the league in scoring defense (64.7) and rebounding margin (plus-6.6)., Hofstra and Towson rank 2-3 in scoring margin, at 7.2 and 7.1, respectively. Hofstra is ninth in the league with a minus-1.4 rebound margin.

Doubling Up

Towson guard Cam Holden has six double-doubles, tied with Drexel’s James Butler for the most in the CAA.

Holden had 20 points, 19 rebounds and eight assists in the Tigers’ 76-61 victory over Penn on Nov. 23, the first Division I player to reach those plateaus since Cleveland Start’s Norris Cole did it in 2011.

By the Numbers

Hofstra both games last year, as 5.5- and 6-point favorites, going 1-1 ATS, when Covid scheduling forced the teams to play on back-to-back days Jan. 23-24. Both Hofstra and Towson are in KenPom’s top 60 in offensive efficiency. CAA home teams are 7-2 this season after going 49-41 a season ago. Seven of the nine conference games have been decided by four points or less.

Hofstra has had more non-conference success this season and is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at Towson, two good reasons to back the Pride here.

The pick: Hofstra +3.5 (-110)

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Jack Magruder

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