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One thing that we know about the by-election tonight in the seat of Urmston and Stretford is that there will be a low turnout and that LAB will win. The vacancy has occurred because the former MP has become Deputy Mayor of Greater Manchester

My guess is that the turnout will be somewhat lower than we saw a fortnight ago and we might see the Reform party doing somewhat better.

This will be the second of three elections in North West England all in solid LAB seats. The third in Lancashire West takes place next year.

Mike Smithson



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