Indiana guard Al Durham rising for a layup

Al Durham and the Indiana Hoosiers. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

  • #20 Florida State gets its first test of the season, facing Indiana at home on Wednesday, December 9th, at 9:15 PM ET
  • The Seminoles have played just one game, dominating winless North Florida; Indiana has had mixed results against quality opponents
  • Find odds for the game, as well as matchup analysis and a pick, in the article below

Thursday’s matchup between #20 Florida State and Indiana (9:15 PM EST) is a test of expectations versus results. The Seminoles have great expectations attached to them, but they haven’t had much opportunity to show what they’re made of. The Hoosiers, meanwhile, have already demonstrated an ability to beat a quality foe.

Florida State has plenty to prove in this game, and they’ll try to do it as 1.5-point favorites.

 Indiana vs #20 Florida State Odds

Team Moneyline Point Spread Over/Under Total
Indiana +108 +1.5 (-108) Over 140.5 (-110)
#20 Florida State -126 -1.5 (-112) Under 140.5 (-110)

Odds taken Dec. 8 at FanDuel.

How They’ve Fared So Far

Indiana (3-1) has already faced three top 75 teams in KenPom’s rankings, winning two of those three games. But they’ve had some pretty volatile results in that span.

As a two-point favorite against Texas, the Hoosiers lost by 22. The following night, as a one-point underdog against Stanford, they won by 17. Sports are weird, aren’t they?

Florida State (1-0) is a team with lots of hype but limited results so far. They dominated North Florida, 86-58 (and covered), but that’s what was supposed to happen. North Florida is 0-5 and hasn’t come within even 10 points of any of their opponents.

So what does that tell us? Not much. But it’s difficult to dock the Seminoles, too, given that they haven’t done anything wrong — yet.

ATS Analysis

Indiana and Florida State have a combined 4-1 record against the spread this season (Florida State covered in its only game, while Indiana is 3-1). Dating back to last year, the Hoosiers have covered in seven of their past 10 games, while the Seminoles have covered in eight of their past 10. So all in all, these teams have been pretty good at getting the best of oddsmakers.

They’ve only faced each other once in recent history, but that happened to be last season so, it’s still quite relevant. Indiana was a 1.5-point favorite in their Dec. 3, 2019 matchup, covering easily in an 80-64 win at home.

For what it’s worth, two of the Seminoles’ top four scorers from that game have since moved on (either via graduation or the NBA draft). The same is true for Indiana, though their personnel losses might be more pronounced, given that graduate Devonte Green scored 30 points in last year’s game (including 5-of-7 from three-point range).

At the same time, one of Indiana’s key returnees — sophomore forward Trayce Jackson-Davis — could fill that scoring void. He had 15 points in last season’s meeting (second behind Green) and is averaging 21.5 points/game through four contests this year.

Injury Analysis

Florida State is injury-free, but the same is not true for Indiana. Two contributing players are questionable for Thursday’s game with injuries: center Joey Brunk (back) and guard Aljami Durham (ankle).

Brunk started 31 games for Indiana last year, chipping in 6.8 points and 5.2 rebounds per game. He hasn’t appeared yet this year, but he appears close. He took warmups before the Hoosiers’ Nov. 30 game and coach Archie Miller said he was expected back soon. Brunk missed Indiana’s games the following two days, but perhaps he can come back now that another full week has passed.

Durham, meanwhile, is second on the team in scoring (12 points/game) and first in assists (three assists/game). His timetable to return is unknown. Despite his absence from Indiana’s Dec. 2 game, the Hoosiers won by 16 points over a strong Stanford team.

For simplicity’s sake, we like that Indiana has far more game-intensity experience this season, and that they’ve demonstrated an ability to beat quality teams. Florida State might be strong, but we need to see more from them first.

Pick: Indiana (+108)

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