Brayden Point celebrates a goal

Brayden Point and the Tampa Bay Lightning have a 3-1 series lead over the New York Islanders. Photo from @calgarysun (Twitter)

  • The Tampa Bay Lightning lead the New York Islanders 3-1 in the Eastern Conference final
  • Brayden Point returned in game four and tallied a goal and an assist
  • Read on to see why there is no value betting the Lightning on the moneyline in Game 5, but why they are still the side to bet on

The Tampa Bay Lightning have the New York Islanders on the ropes.

The Islanders opened the scoring only to see the Lightning score twice in the next 27 seconds. In the end, Tampa Bay scored twice more and ultimately earned a 3-1 series lead in the Eastern Conference final.

Islanders vs Lightning Game 5 Odds

Team Puck Line Over/Under Moneyline at DraftKings
New York Islanders +1.5 (-167) O 5.5 (+112) +163
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (+140) U 5.5 (-137) -190

Odds taken Sep. 13th

The Islanders vs Lightning odds paint a very clear picture. Tampa Bay are heavy favorites to finish the series in Game 5 on Tuesday night. The good news? The puck line is offering great value and gives you an option to comfortably bet on the Lightning to book a spot in the Stanley Cup final.

Brayden Point Changes Momentum In Series

The only game Brayden Point missed in the series was the lone Islanders victory. That’s not a coincidence. Tampa Bay has won seven straight games with him in the lineup. The 24-year old is now tied for the playoff lead with 25 points in 16 games. He is an absolute force that sways the balance of power when he’s on the ice.

The Lightning also got Alex Killorn back after a one-game suspension. The pair combined for 51 goals during the regular season so it was a huge boost having them available for game five. Having their forward depth back (only Steven Stamkos remains out of the lineup) puts added stress on the Islanders’ defense.

One Key Stat Tilting the Ice In Tampa Bay’s Favor

Goals, assists, points, hits, plus-minus. Those may be sexy stats but it’s one that gets a lot less attention that is tilting the ice in this series. Face-off wins. The Lightning have had their way with the Islanders at the face-off dot and it’s resulting in more possessions which they are turning in to more goals.

Tampa Bay has won more face-offs in every single game of the series. Game 4 was the most one-sided game with the Lightning winning 61.8% of the face-offs. They are clicking at 57% for the series and it is proving to be a big advantage. With the more skilled lineup, the added possession time is resulting in more shots and more scoring opportunities. All four centers for the Lightning won more face-offs than they lost in game four. When all four lines have more possession than the opponent, it’s a big-time advantage.

Consider Coaching Strategy and Bet the Puck Line

The Islanders go home with a loss in Game 5 and that’s important to note here. We’ve seen coaches on the ropes get aggressive when pulling their goalie in this situation and it has often resulted in lopsided scorelines. If Tampa Bay isn’t able to put New York away early, they’ll likely have a long look at an open net late in the game. Trust the Lightning to win by more than a goal with a trip to the Stanley Cup final the reward for a victory.

The Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line (+140)

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