Jacob deGrom’s NL Cy Young odds have shortened to +150 from +600 last week, and he now finds himself among the frontrunners. Photo via @SNYtv (Twitter).
- The competition for the NL Cy Young award is, at most, a five-horse race
- Mets’ ace Jacob deGrom has surged up the odds board, sitting second only to the Cubs’ Yu Darvish
- To see how deGrom stacks up with Darvish and the other NL Cy Young candidates, check out the article below
With a couple of weeks left in the regular season, don’t act surprised that New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom has inserted himself into the heart of the National League Cy Young award conversation.
DeGrom, the two-time reigning Cy Young winner, has once again been a bright spot on a mediocre Mets team that is likely going to miss the postseason for a fourth consecutive year. (Keep in mind, those playoff absences have not cost deGrom in Cy Young voting; he has been that good.)
Since the start of September, deGrom has seen hisNL Cy Young odds shorten fourfold, from +600 to +150. But that’s nothing compared to the recent emergence of Phillies starter Aaron Nola, who was as long as +2800 just last week.
2020 NL Cy Young Odds
|Player (Team)||Average Odds on Sept. 15||Average Odds on Sept. 9||Average Odds on Sept. 2|
|Yu Darvish (Cubs)||+110||+175||+275|
|Jacob deGrom (Mets)||+150||+600||+600|
|Aaron Nola (Phillies)||+550||+2800||+2000|
|Max Fried (Braves)||+800||+225||+387.5|
|Trevor Bauer (Reds)||+800||+600||+550|
Odds as of Sept. 15th.
What has pushed deGrom — and Nola — to the forefront of this race? Is anybody worth betting over the frontrunner, Yu Darvish?
If you’ve watched any baseball in the past few years, you are not hearing about Jacob deGrom for the first time here in this article. He has won the NL Cy Young the past two seasons, with the following annual averages: 10-8 record, 2.05 ERA, 2.32 FIP, 0.941 WHIP, and 11.2 strikeouts per nine.
Consider what he has done this year: 4-1 record, 1.67 ERA (NL best), 1.96 FIP, 0.870 WHIP, and 13.2 strikeouts per nine.
🔸 7 IP
🔸 3 H
🔸 1 ER
🔸 12 K (all swinging)
Career Mets ERA:
🔹 Tom Seaver (2.57)
🔹 Jacob deGrom (2.58)
He’s simply de🐐 pic.twitter.com/0PpBnoI5TQ
— SNY (@SNYtv) September 7, 2020
Impressive, isn’t it? His numbers are noticeably better now than the average of his two award-winning seasons. That is something bettors should definitely take note of.
DeGrom has been extra dominant of late, with a 1.13 ERA in his past five starts. All five went at least six innings and had an average of 10 strikeouts. That’s award-winning stuff.
Not So Fast, Nola
Aaron Nola’s spike in the latest odds makes him work a closer look. He went from +2800 on Sep. 9 to +550 now — but why?
Well, Nola has been a bona fide stud in three September starts, going 2-1 with a 1.33 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 20.1 innings.
— Bovada (@BovadaOfficial) September 12, 2020
No reason to get too excited on Nola, though, because his season starts (2.40 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 0.888 WHIP and 12.3 strikeouts per nine) lag behind the others at the top.
Darvish or deGrom?
What if the answer is neither?
In all seriousness, deGrom is the choice right now. Darvish still has the shortest odds, but his only league-leading stat is wins (7). If deGrom has proven anything in the past two seasons, it’s that you don’t need to rack up big win totals to win the Cy Young.
Yu Darvish’s line:
6 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 9 K. pic.twitter.com/ijQIO4qEne
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) September 10, 2020
With that said, bettors should have another name on their radars: Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes. The reliever-turned-starter is edging deGrom in FIP (1.94) and K/9 (13.3) with only four fewer innings pitched.
7 IP, 1 H, 11 Ks. Filthy.
Corbin Burnes lowers his ERA to 1.99. 🔥
— MLB (@MLB) September 9, 2020
He isn’t even getting odds at most sportsbooks, but that’s bound to change soon. When it does, he’s worth a value-dependent look. For now, invest in deGrom for the three-peat.
Pick: Jacob deGrom (+150)
Jordan Horrobin is a sports journalist whose MLB, NHL, NFL and NCAA work has appeared in outlets such as The Athletic, MLB.com, the Detroit Free Press and more. He is currently based in Toronto, also working as a contributor for Forbes.com and a freelance editor for Sportsnet.