Juventus’ Cristiano Ronaldo controls the ball during the Serie A soccer match between Juventus and Cagliari at the Allianz stadium, in Turin, Italy, Saturday, Nov. 21, 2020. (AP Photo/Antonio Calanni)
- Juventus face Torino on Saturday, December 5th in the Derby della Mole
- The Old Lady hasn’t lost the Derby della Mole since 2015 – the hosts are -240 favorites
- Get the full odds, betting analysis and a pick below
Chasing the early pacesetters Milan, Juventus are in derby action this weekend in Serie A Round 10 action as they host their struggling neighbors, Torino. Juve hasn’t lost in the Derby della Mole since 2015, and such supremacy is reflected in the odds with the Serie A champions sitting at -240 on the moneyline.
Torino begins the weekend in the relegation zone with one win from nine matches. Juventus, playing before the rest of the top six, will go second if they avoid defeat. The Turin derby has frequently been a mismatch in recent years, and that’s a theme that continues in 2020-21 even if Juventus are more fallible than they have been in seasons past.
The table below has the latest Derby della Mole odds from DraftKings.
Juventus vs Torino Odds
|Juventus vs Torino||JUV -1.5 (+117) | TOR +1.5 (-139)||JUV -240 | TOR -600 | DRAW +375||Ov 3 (-124) | Un 3 (+100)|
All odds taken Dec 4 at DraftKings
Giorgio Chiellini and Gianluigi Buffon are set to miss out on Saturday with niggling muscle injuries. Two of the most experienced players in Derby della Mole history will be on the sidelines, leaving a newer face to anchor the defense alongside Leo Bonucci. Matthijs de Ligt will start at the back, while Paulo Dybala is expected to partner Cristiano Ronaldo up top with Alvaro Morata suspended.
There’s mixed team news for Torino. Andrea Belotti is fit to start, but Marco Giampaolo is without several members of his first team squad. Sasa Lukic, Amer Gojak, Mergim Vojvoda and Daniele Baselli are all unavailable.
🟢 5 for Sporting Lisbon
😈 118 for Man Utd
👑 450 for Real Madrid
⚫ 75 for Juventus
🇵🇹 102 for Portugal
7️⃣5️⃣0️⃣ CAREER GOALS FOR CRISTIANO RONALDO! 🤩 pic.twitter.com/F4hiipiFMA
— Goal (@goal) December 3, 2020
Both squads have important players missing, though the two managers will be delighted to have their primary attacking options fit in Belotti and Ronaldo. Only Zlatan Ibrahimovic has scored more goals than the Turin-based pair so far this season.
Torino Absorb Pressure
The 22 goals conceded by Torino in Serie A this season is an unfair representation of their performance – they have given up 16.68 expected goals per Understat. That’s not to say they are a good defensive team, however. Giampaolo’s side rank bottom of the league in successful pressures rate. They are bottom five in Serie A in total pressures in the middle and attacking third.
— OptaPaolo (@OptaPaolo) November 30, 2020
Torino sit deep and will pressure the opponent once they reach their third. No team has touched the ball more in their own box than Torino, and they are second in touches in their defensive third. Juventus will have to break down two banks on four on Sunday – the hosts must be wary of the threat Torino pose on the counter.
In Belotti, they have one of the form strikers in Europe. Torino have taken a high percentage of their shots from inside the box, and 42.7% of their shots have been on target, the best mark in Serie A. Torino rank joint-third in the league in shots created from defensive actions. They will look to transition quickly, and catch out a Juventus defense which has been disrupted by injuries throughout this campaign.
Juventus vs Torino Stats
|13 yellows, 3 reds||Cards||18 yellows, 1 red|
|14.9||Shots per match||10.2|
|61%||Shots inside the area||63%|
|16.83||Understat expected points||8.74|
While results have remained poor for Torino, there has been an improvement in their performances of late. It’s one defeat in four league matches, and that loss came in what was a relatively even matchup with Inter. They have rebuilt confidence after a poor start.
The gap in quality is clear, and Juventus were able to cruise past Dynamo Kyiv in midweek to limit concerns of fatigue. Juve’s domination of this derby shows how far clear they have been of their nearest geographical rivals.
It’s unlikely to be a thrashing. Torino are trending in the right direction. They will cause problems when they get the ball and will fancy their chances of snatching a goal through Belotti. Juventus to win and both teams to score is the pick at +170.
Pick: Juventus to win and both teams to score (+170)
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.