LA Clippers vs Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Prediction, Odds & Injury Report (Apr. 26)

Apr 23, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) dribbles the ball against Los Angeles Clippers forward Paul George (13) during the third quarter of game two of the first round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

• The Dallas Mavericks are 4-point home favorites over the LA Clippers in Game 3
• The NBA injury report lists Kawhi Leonard as questionable but likely to play
• Read below for Clippers vs Mavericks Game 3 prediction, odds and injury report

The Los Angeles Clippers travel to Dallas to take on the Mavericks in a crucial Game 3 matchup on Friday, April 26 at 8:00 PM ET on ESPN. The series is tied 1-1 after the Mavericks pulled out a gritty 96-93 win in Game 2 in Los Angeles.

The Mavericks are 4.5-point home favorites with the over/under set at 211 points. The NBA injury reports list Clippers star forward Kawhi Leonard as questionable after he missed Game 2 with a sore knee.

Here is our Game 3 Clippers vs Mavs prediction, along with odds and injury report breakdown.

LA Clippers vs Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Odds

Dallas is currently a 4-point favorite over LA for Game 3, giving them 65.5% implied win probability.

The Clippers were 45-37 against the spread (ATS) in the regular season but just 17-24 ATS on the road. The Mavericks were 44-38 ATS overall and an impressive 34-19 ATS at home.

 

Odds as of April 26, 2024, at Caesars Sportsbook. Browse sports betting apps for real money this NBA postseason.

Series Tied 1-1

The Clippers took Game 1 at home 109-97 behind 31 points from Kawhi Leonard. However, Leonard missed Game 2 with a sore knee and the Clippers offense struggled, shooting just 37% from the field and 27% from three. Paul George led the way with 22 points but it wasn’t enough.

The Mavericks bounced back in Game 2 despite an off shooting night from Luka Doncic, who had 32 points on 11-of-26 shooting. Doncic made plays down the stretch on both ends to seal the win. The Mavs also got key contributions from role players like P.J. Washington (18 points) and Derrick Jones Jr. (10 points, 7 rebounds).

Game 3 Matchup Analysis

The key for the Clippers is Kawhi Leonard’s health. He’s officially listed as questionable but sounds likely to play after getting in a full practice on Thursday. With the extra day off between games, his knee will be the healthiest it’s been in weeks. If Leonard is close to 100%, he gives the Clippers a huge boost on both ends.

Defensively, the Clippers have done a great job slowing down the Mavericks’ high-powered offense. They’ve held Dallas under 100 points in both games and limited them to a 48.1% effective field goal percentage. The Clippers have taken the Mavs out of their up-tempo style, dropping their pace rating from 100.6 in the regular season to 92.5 in the playoffs.

Game 3 on deck 🔜 pic.twitter.com/2hPRoTQ2eE

— LA Clippers (@LAClippers) April 26, 2024

For the Mavericks, they found a winning formula in Game 2 by going small with Maxi Kleber playing more minutes at center. The Mavs are +15 with Kleber on the floor in the series compared to -24 with him on the bench. His floor spacing ability neutralizes the Clippers’ drop coverage and opens up driving lanes for Doncic.

Dallas will likely continue leaning on Kleber, especially with Daniel Gafford questionable with a back injury.

The Mavericks also need their role players to step up again at home. P.J. Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. were huge in Game 2. Washington is a great rebounder who could feast on the glass if the Clippers go small. His over 5.5 rebounds prop looks like a solid bet.

Injury Report

As mentioned for the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard is questionable but trending towards playing. The Mavericks could be without backup center Daniel Gafford who is dealing with back spasms. Tim Hardaway Jr. remains out for Dallas with an ankle injury.

Clippers vs Mavericks Game 3 Prediction

This is a tricky spot for the Clippers down 1-1 and on the road. But I think they are being undervalued as 4-point underdogs. The Clippers still have the talent edge with Leonard and George, and their defense travels. If Kawhi is able to play and be effective, I expect a much better offensive showing than their dismal Game 2 performance.

The Mavericks are tough at home and Doncic is a matchup nightmare. But the Clippers have had success against him in the past with their switching scheme and stable of wing defenders. I also worry about the Mavs’ lack of depth if Gafford is limited or out.

Ultimately, I see this being another close, hard-fought game that comes down to the wire. I’ll grab the 4.5 points with the Clippers and look for them to keep it within the number, with a great shot to steal a road win. I also like the under 213.5 given how stingy both these defenses have been.

• The Pick: Clippers +4 (-110)

 

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