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LAB will surely hold Erdington with a much-increased majority – politicalbetting.com 2

At GE2019 only 7 seats had lower turnouts

The sad and sudden death last Friday of former prominent trade unionist, Jack Dromey, means there is a by-election in the Birmingham Erdington constituency where he had been the MP since GE2010.

I’ve no doubt that following their North Shropshire and Chesham & Amersham success the LDs will discreetly be testing the water in the seat where their candidate lost her deposit at GE2019. The percentage vote lead that Dromey had over the LDs at the general election was smaller than the Shropshire contest.

My guess is that this will be an easy Labour hold on a very low turnout. At GE2019 this was 53.3% making it the 643rd lowest of all 650 seats. In the by-election, it could end up in the teens.

Mike Smithson



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