Screenshot 2022 01 15 12.08.23
leading his party into opposition? – politicalbetting.com 3

Since GE2019 CON position in relation to LAB down up to 26%

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leading his party into opposition? – politicalbetting.com 4

At GE2019 the Tories secured their big majority by taking a GB vote share which was just under 12% above LAB. In the past 24 hours we have had one poll with Starmer’s party now 14% ahead. That is an overall change of nearly 26% which is huge.

Inevitably big question marks are hanging over Johnson’s position with a possible confidence move in the offing. The question is how soon will that take place? Could it actually happen well before the May locals when the Tories are expected to take a hammering?

Johnson did have a reputation as a vote winner because of his victories against the now-discredited figures of Ken Livingstone and Corbyn. The question is whether that will still be the case against Starmer – who was knighted by a former CON PM. He hasn’t faced serious opposition and his party’s performance in recent by-elections has been abysmal.

The Tories are fortunate that both LAB and the LDs are standing aside in the coming Southen West by-election.

Mike Smithson



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