Liverpool vs Arsenal

Arsenal’s Gabriel, right, challenges Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah during the English Premier League soccer match between Arsenal and Liverpool at the Emirates Stadium in London, England, Saturday, April 3, 2021. (Catherine Ivill/Pool via AP)

  • Liverpool host Arsenal in the Premier League’s 12th Matchday on Saturday, November 20th, at 12:30 pm EST
  • After two winless matches in the Premier League, Liverpool find themselves in fourth place on 22 points, while Arsenal sit just two points back in fifth place
  • Get the odds, our analysis and betting prediction below

This Saturday, Premier League fans are in for a treat as Arsenal travels to Northwest England to take on Liverpool. The Gunners have been on a flyer of form recently, despite shamefully losing their first three Premier League matches in the new campaign. Regardless, they now find themselves only two points shy of Liverpool’s tally, and could jump them into the top four with a victory.

However, beating Liverpool at Anfield will be no small task. The 53,394 person stadium is one of Europe’s most hallowed grounds, and one that has haunted Arsenal in recent memory. The Gunners have not won away at Liverpool in the Premier League since their famous 4-1 victory in 2015. Of course, at that time Liverpool were still running with the likes of Raheem Sterling, Joe Allen and Lucas Leiva. Oh, how the times have changed for these two clubs.

Liverpool vs Arsenal Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Liverpool vs Arsenal LIV -1.5 (+140) | ARS +1.5 (-160) LIV -210 | ARS +550 | DRAW +380 Ov 3.5 (+125) | Un 3.5 (-155)

Odds as of Nov 18th at DraftKings

Liverpool’s Fitness Could Impact the Match

Let us start the preview of this EPL Round 12 match with the hosts, Liverpool. The international break has not been kind to them, stacking up on what was already a significant injury list. In fact, Jordan Henderson, Andy Robertson and Sadio Mane all picked up knocks while they were away.

Henderson and Mane look to contend for the starting XI. But, Robertson is more of a doubt considering Liverpool have new found quality at left-back.

Kostas Tsimikas, who broke into the team at the start of the season, has been tremendous for Liverpool. Per 90 minutes, he has an expected assists mark of 0.26, and makes 3.29 shot creating actions. Respectively, those stats are in the 98th and 97th percentile for full-backs in Europe’s top five leagues, per FBRef. His addition to the starting XI could prove worthwhile for Jurgen Klopp and Liverpool.

Furthermore, the Reds will be without Curtis Jones, Joe Gomez, Naby Keita, James Milner and Roberto Firmino. While Klopp can still form an incredible front trio, the absence of Firmino is significant. In 12 matches against Arsenal in the Premier League, he has scored eight goals and provided three assists.

Arsenal’s Recent Strength of Schedule

Nonetheless, let us discuss the visitors and the fine form they have been on as of late. It is important to give credit to Mikel Arteta and this Arsenal side for turning bad fortunes around. Specifically, Aaron Ramsdale and Takehiro Tomiyasu have made a world of impact since being added to the regular rotation. In turn, the North London side have been on an undefeated run since the end of August.

With that being said, the competition they have faced in that time has been dreadful. They have played four teams who have already sacked their manager, and three of their six wins are from the bottom five of the Premier League table.

Liverpool vs Arsenal Premier League Statistics

2.82 Goals per game 1.18
2.39 Expected goals per game (xG) 1.47
61.7% Goals allowed per game 1.18
1.08 Expected goals allowed per game (xGA) 1.5
61.7% Possession % 46.8%
85.6% Passing Accuracy % 81.6%
19.5 Shots per game 14.0

Additionally, using expected goals again, they were expected to lose four of their last eight Premier League matches. In reality, their defense has been superb against some lackluster attackers.

Liverpool will be a totally different challenge, and Mo Salah will surely put them in many precarious situations. The Egyptian has 17 goal contributions this year and loves a goal versus Arsenal. Salah has seven goals and four assists against the Gunners and will be a massive test for either Kieran Tierney or Nuno Tavares.

Liverpool vs Arsenal H2H Results

More over, the head-to-head results also favor Liverpool. In their last 15 meetings across all competitions, Liverpool have won seven and drawn four. Arsenal also have a shocking record away from home against England’s “big six” sides. To show, in the last two years they have a 2-2-6 away record versus those five sides.

One trend to point out is that these games between Liverpool and Arsenal tend to be very high-scoring. In those same 15 matches, the average goal total was 4.27.

Liverpool vs Arsenal Best Bet

Overall, the best bet in this match is the Liverpool spread -1.5 with odds of +140. This bet has great value and Liverpool have history of success against Arsenal, with a couple of players in fine form.

Pick: Liverpool -1.5 (+140)

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Josh Ricker

Sports Writer


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