Kylian Mbappe, Lionel Messi PSG

PSG’s Kylian Mbappe, right, and Lionel Messi, center, celebrate after the Champions League group A soccer match between Paris Saint Germain and RB Leipzig at the Parc des Princes stadium in Paris, Tuesday, Oct. 19, 2021. PSG won the match 3-2. (AP Photo/Francois Mori)

  • Marseille host PSG in the 11th Matchday of France’s Ligue 1, on Sunday October 24th, at 2:45 pm EST
  • PSG are nearly perfect domestically, securing 27 out of a possible 30 points so far, while Marseille sit ten points back in third place
  • Get the odds, our analysis and betting prediction below

The highlight matinee of Ligue 1 this weekend is between Marseille and PSG. These sides are respectively the third and first place teams in France’s top flight, which should make for an enthralling duel.

On one hand, PSG have nearly been perfect in domestic play so far during the new campaign. Aside from a shocking defeat at the hands of Rennes, they have barely put a foot in the wrong direction.

With the several additions they made in the summer including Achraf Hakimi, Gini Wijnaldum, Gianluigi Donnarumma, and of course Lionel Messi, everyone expected that their might be some “gel time”. At points so far, the goal numbers have not been jaw-dropping, but PSG look unstoppable nonetheless.

Marseille vs PSG Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Marseille vs PSG MAR +1.5 (-210) | PSG -1.5 (+160) MAR +425 | PSG -165 | DRAW +360 Ov 3.5 (+130) | Un 3.5 (-160)

Odds as of Oct 23rd at DraftKings

Marseille Deserve Respect from PSG

Regardless, PSG are facing a disciplined rival in Marseille. In fact, the French side managed by Jorge Sampaoli was able to pull out a victory against PSG in their second-to-last Ligue 1 meeting.

While Marseille do not have the glitz-and-glam or even the same form as PSG, they are not a team to take lightly. Despite some of their recent performances, do not forget the fact that this team started the season unbeaten in all competitions, for almost two months.

Additionally, their only losses this year have come against Lille and Lens. For reference, Lille won Ligue 1 last season and Lens are currently in second place, one point ahead of Marseille. Les Phocéens are also unbeaten in Europe, earning three draws against Lokomotiv Moscow, Galatasaray and Lazio.

Expect a Fiery Edition of Le Classique

Furthermore, this match between Marseille and PSG has all the making of what should be a fiery encounter. Obviously, Le Classique is one of the most highly anticipated matches in French and European football.

Every time these sides meet, sparks flare, both on and off the pitch, between players and fans alike.

Marseille vs PSG Ligue 1 Statistics

2 Goals per game 2.4
1.22 Goals conceded per game 1.0
61.4% Possession % 63.7%
88.7% Passing Accuracy % 90.6%
13.9 Shots per game 13.5

Marseille fans have already been involved in some scruffs this year in Ligue 1 play, so the environment at the Velodrome has to be accounted for. More over, in the last five head-to-head matches between these sides, seven red cards have been handed out.

Of course, most of those came in their meeting on September 13th, 2020, when five players were removed in the 97th minute for violent conduct and arguing with the match official.

Since 1971, Marseille and PSG have met 100 times, officially, with the Parisians winning 45% of the time. This will be Messi’s first Le Classique, so surely he will want to make an impact in front of the traveling supporters.

PSG’s Depth Gives Them a Massive Advantage

Staying on course with PSG, it is important to discuss their depth, especially in games like this. While Marseille are a great French side, they are hindered by European play in the midweek. As a result, from last weekend against Lorient, to this week against Lazio, they only made one change. That change was Cengiz Under who replaced Konrad De la Fuente in the starting XI.

Meanwhile, PSG was able to make seven changes, even giving Donnarumma a rest. For this match, it looks like they will be without Leandro Paredes, Sergio Ramos and possibly Neymar. However, the point is that these absences are rather insignificant given the depth of Mauricio Pochettino’s side.

Ultimately, even if Neymar does not play, you bring Mauro Icardi and Angel di Maria back into a side already overflowing with goal scoring ability. Conversely, Marseille will have tired legs all around the pitch. Dimitri Payet and Arkadiusz Milik are valuable attacking options, but as the season goes on they will have diminishing returns.

Marseille vs PSG Best Bet

Overall, the best bet in this game is PSG with a -1.5 spread and odds of +160. Marseille are coming fresh off another tiring Europa League draw, and despite being at home, will face difficult circumstances against PSG. This bet has hit on six of their last eight head-to-head meetings and is simply a case of PSG having too much talent for their Ligue 1 opposition.

Pick: PSG -1.5 (+160)

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Josh Ricker

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NBA
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