Sandy Alcantara delivers a pitch

Jul 24, 2022; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fourth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

  • The New York Mets and Miami Marlins face off at loanDepot Park on Friday, July 29th
  • The Mets have topped the NL East all but one day this season, while the Marlins are on the fringe of the NL Wild Card mix
  • Read below for the Mets vs Marlins odds and betting preview

The New York Mets (61-37) face the Miami Marlins (record) on Friday at loanDepot Park. The opener in a three-game series has a scheduled first pitch of 6:40 pm ET. The Amazins will send Chris Bassitt to the mound, while the Fish counter with Sandy Alcantara.

The Mets are favorites in this one and are also favored to win the NL East with -155 odds. Meantime, Don Mattingly’s club has extremely long +30000 odds in the MLB Division odds.

Mets vs Marlins Odds

Team Runline Moneyline Total
New York Mets -1.5 (+110) -165 Ov 6.5 (-125)
Miami Marlins +1.5 (-130) +140 Un 6.5 (+105)

Odds as of July 28th at Caesars Sportsbook

New York vs Miami Probable Pitchers

The Mets have gone 10-8 in the 33-year-old Bassitt’s outings this season, 12 of which have been of a quality variety. He was sharp early in the season — four of his first five turns were quality ones. And he’s been even more filthy of late, spinning six straight quality performances.

The former All-Star has gone 3-3 with a 2.43 ERA over that stretch.

Bassitt was excellent in his most recent appearance last Saturday, going seven innings and allowing four hits, two earned runs and no walks while striking out 11 in an eventual 2-1 loss.

Meantime, Alcantara has been far superior than his Friday counterpart this season, sporting an NL-leading 1.81 ERA. The Fish have gone 13-7 in games he’s started (Miami is 32-44 in games started by all others), with 16 of those turns being quality ones.

The 26-year-old is a heavy favorite in the NL Cy Young odds, leading the big leagues in games started (20) and innings pitched (144.1) while leading the NL in complete games (2) and WHIP (0.901).

Miami has won four of Alcantara’s last five starts and the pitcher has struck out double-digits in three of his last four turns. He went six innings last Sunday against the Pirates, allowing two hits, two earned runs and three walks while striking out 10 in a 6-5 victory.

Bassitt vs Alcantara Stats

7-7 Record 9-4
3.72 ERA 1.81
3.14 xERA 2.61
25.8% K% 24.3%

Buck Showalter’s club comes into the series with all the momentum, having just swept a two-game Subway Series from the suddenly struggling Yankees and holding a three-game lead over the Braves in the division.

Starling Marte provided the game-winning RBI in Wednesday’s 3-2 win over the Bronx Bombers, singling home the winning run in the bottom of the ninth inning.

Pete Alonso, top three in the NL MVP odds, also smashed his 26th homer of the season in the victory and went 4-for-6 in the series, raising his batting average to .281. Alonso now has an MLB-leading 84 RBI in 2022.

Every starter in New York’s lineup — except for All-Star Jeff McNeil — had at least one hit against the crosstown rival in the win and seems to be emboldened with the eminent return of two-time NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom — which could come next week.

Meantime, Miami is coming off a split of a four-game set against the Reds that saw them overcome a 5-4 ninth inning deficit on Thursday to eventually win 7-6. Jesús Aguilar was the Marlins’ standout at the plate, driving in four and falling a triple shy of the cycle.

 

The Marlins currently have +25000 odds to win the Fall Classic, while the Mets are at +800 in the World Series odds.

NYM vs MIA Last 10 Meetings

Date Home Team Away Team Score
7/10/22 Mets Marlins MIA, 2-0
7/9/22 Mets Marlins NYM, 5-4
7/8/22 Mets Marlins MIA, 5-2
7/7/22 Mets Marlins NYM, 10-0
6/26/22 Marlins Mets MIA, 3-2
6/25/22 Marlins Mets NYM, 5-3
6/24/22 Marlins Mets NYM, 5-3
6/20/22 Mets Marlins NYM, 6-0
6/19/22 Mets Marlins MIA, 6-2
6/18/22 Mets Marlins NYM, 3-2

Mets vs Marlins Prediction

These same two starters matched up in an epic pitching duel on July 10th, with each tossing seven innings of scoreless ball. The game was was 0-0 into the 10th, when the Marlins eventually came out on top to win 2-0.

It’s hard to pick against the Amazins right now. But Alcantara is on another planet this season. I’ll go with the home dog featuring a legit Cy Young candidate in this spot.

Pick: Marlins ML (+140)

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Blair Johnson

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