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- The Minnesota Vikings visit the LA Chargers on Thursday Night Football
- Justin Herbert has the fourth highest passing grade against the blitz this season
- Keep reading for my favorite Vikings vs Chargers player prop picks and anytime touchdown bets for Thursday Night Football
A pair of struggling teams meet tonight on Thursday Night Football as the Minnesota Vikings (3-3, 2-1 away) face the LA Chargers (4-3, 2-2 home). There’s no shortage of star power on both sides, with names like Justin Herbert and Justin Jefferson sure to draw plenty of wagers in the player props market.
Kickoff is slated for 8:15 pm ET from SoFi Stadium, in Inglewood, CA, with Amazon Prime Video providing the broadcast coverage.
The first table below lists the main Vikings vs Chargers player props available in the TNF odds, plus my favorite O/U to target. The second table features the anytime touchdown props.
MIN Vikings vs LA Chargers Player Props
My favorite Vikings vs Chargers player props bet is over 23.5 completions for Herbert. His prop is just one completion higher than Carson Wentz’s, but Herbert’s passing yards over/under is 25 yards higher. I’m also betting on some positive touchdown regression for Jefferson, and for Jordan Mason to hit pay dirt in a very favorable matchup.
NFL player props as of Oct. 23 at FanDuel, DraftKings and bet365. Claim the FanDuel promo code before wagering on Thursday Night Football.
Vikings vs Charger Player Prop Bet #1: Justin Herbert Over 23.5 Completions
Only the Atlanta Falcons blitz more than Minnesota. Brian Flores’ D brings the heat on 39% of defensive snaps, and they’ve parlayed that into the league’s third best pressure rate. You know who isn’t afraid of the blitz? Herbert.
Herbert vs the Blitz this Season
The 27-year-old owns an 87.4 passing grade versus the blitz this season, the fourth best mark in the league. He’s thrown 5 TD passes against extra rushers, and his yards per attempt is identical against the blitz compared to a clean pocket.
LA already throws at the NFL’s third highest clip, and that isn’t going to change seeing how they’re down multiple running backs. Herbert has cleared 23.5 completions in five of seven starts so far, throwing the ball 93 times in his last two games alone.
- Justin Herbert Over 23.5 completions (-102 at FanDuel); 1 unit
Vikings vs Chargers Anytime Touchdown Props
Shifting over to the Vikings vs Chargers anytime touchdown props, where you can get plus-money on any player in the field. Mason has the shortest odds at +120, and while that’s a glaring value, we can’t pass up the opportunity to bet on Jefferson first.
Vikings vs Chargers Player Prop Bet #2: Justin Jefferson Anytime TD
Jefferson has just one touchdown on 52 targets this season. It’s not for a lack of playing time in close, as he’s run a route on 90% of the Vikings red zone dropbacks, earning 6 targets. Minnesota’s red zone offense has been a mess so far, and scored only once on six trips last week.
I’m expecting some positive regression in Jefferson’s favor and it should come against an LA team that is fading fast in the Super Bowl odds. The Chargers’ pass rush grades out 30th per PFF, and their pressure rate is below league average. That should allow Wentz time to operate in a clean pocket, and he’s significantly more accurate when he’s not under duress.
Justin Jefferson Anytime TD (+150 at ESPN BET); 1 unit
Vikings vs Chargers Player Prop Bet #3: Jordan Mason Anytime TD
I actually think the market is too low on Minnesota tonight, and I think they exceed their 20.5 implied team total. That brings more Vikings touchdowns into play for me, and I like Mason to get at least one.
LA has already allowed 8 TD to enemy running backs, the second most in the league, and rank 30th in successful run rate allowed. They’re also 30th in yards allowed per rush and explosive runs surrendered, opening the door for Mason to bust a long run or score from in close.
- Jordan Mason Anytime TD (+120 at FanDuel); 1 unit
