Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) walks off the field after an NFL football game against the Houston Texans, Sunday, Dec. 5, 2021, in Houston. (AP Photo/Matt Patterson)
- The AFC playoff picture picture will get even more clear when the New England Patriots take on the Indianapolis Colts in Week 15 on Saturday, December 18th
- Both teams are on a trajectory that puts them right in the middle of a Super Bowl fight
- See the best prop bets for this Week 15 matchup below
It’s the time of year when we get NFL football on Saturdays and the matchup between the New England Patriots (9-4) and Indianapolis Colts (7-6) is about as good as it gets. Kickoff from Lucas Oil Stadium is scheduled for 8:20pm ET on NFL Network. This one is indoors so there won’t be any weather to factor in, which means we could see some offense.
The Patriots are the hottest team in the NFL at the moment, winners of their last seven games. The latest conquest was a 14-10 victory over the Buffalo Bills right in front of everyone in the Thursday Night Football installment of Week 14. As for the Colts, they’ve won four of their last five after beating the Houston Texans 31-0 back in Week 13.
Somehow the Colts are 2.5-point favorites in this game despite being the inferior team. The Patriots vs Colts odds show that the total sitting at 46 even though it was 44 just a couple days ago. As always, there are plenty of player props to consider and that is what we will talk about here.
Patriots vs Colts Props
|Passer||Longest Completion||Passing Yards||Passing TDs|
|Mac Jones (Patriots)||34.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||233.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||1.5 (Ov +110 / Un -145)|
|Carson Wentz (Colts)||34.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||221.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||1.5 (Ov +125 / Un -165)|
|Rusher||Longest Rush||Rushing Yards||Total Yards|
|Carson Wentz (Colts)||OFF||10.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||OFF|
|Jonathan Taylor (Colts)||18.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)||93.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||115.5 (Ov -114 / Un -114)|
|Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)||14.5 (Ov -130 / Un -105)||68.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)||83.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)|
|Receiver||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|Brandon Bolden (Patriots)||OFF||28.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||13.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)|
|Jakobi Meyers (Patriots)||OFF||44.5 (Ov -105 / Un -125)||18.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)|
|Jonathan Taylor (Colts)||2.5 (Ov -150 / Un +115)||19.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||11.5 (Ov -125 / Un -105)|
|Kendrick Bourne (Patriots)||OFF||37.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||18.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)|
|Michael Pittman Jr. (Colts)||4.5 (Ov +100 / Un -130)||54.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||21.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)|
|Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)||OFF||13.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||9.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)|
|T.Y. Hilton (Colts)||2.5 (Ov -125 / Un -105)||28.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||15.5 (Ov -105 / Un -125)|
Jonathan Taylor Should Go Off
I’m not the biggest run-the-ball guy so backing running backs has always been tough for me. Throw, throw, and throw some more is what I want to see; but there comes a point in life where you have to give credit where credit is due. That time is right now, people, and that guy is Jonathan Taylor.
Updated #NFL MVP odds at Week 14
Tom Brady +120
Aaron Rodgers +550
Kyler Murray +700
Matthew Stafford +1000
Jonathan Taylor +1000
Josh Allen +1100
Dak Prescott +1500
Patrick Mahomes +1700
Justin Herbert +2000
Lamar Jackson +3000
Kirk Cousins +6000pic.twitter.com/jsXSOJt6DA
— Bet Any Sports (@betanysportsEU) December 9, 2021
It feels pretty crazy to take a guy at almost 100 rushing yards but I think that’s the move. First of all, Taylor is on the filed almost all the time. At least for modern day NFL standards. Even in a negative game script when Nyheim Hines does his best work, Taylor is still around. Step one is being on the field and Taylor checks that box.
The next thing we’ll need is touches and Taylor gets those. In two of his last three games, the Colts have given him 32 carries which is insane in today’s game. Obviously game script has a little to do with that but the New England Patriots don’t strike me as the kind of offense that will run away with a game. Taylor should be a threat to run in all four quarters.
While the Patriots are looking like the best team in the AFC and a Super Bowl candidate, they are vulnerable against the run. On the season, only 10 teams in the NFL have given up more rushing yards than the Patriots. I think it’s by design, like a bend-but-don’t-break deal. Whatever the case, guys are running on New England. I think Taylor is a safe bet to go over 100 yards on Saturday night.
- The Pick: Jonathan Taylor Over 93.5 rushing (-113) wager 1.13 units to win 1 unit
- SBD 2021 NFL Player Props Record: 26-28, -1.12 Units
Patriots vs Colts Scoring Props
|Player||First Touchdown Scorer||Anytime Touchdown Scorer|
|Jonathan Taylor (Colts)||+400||-190|
|Damien Harris (Patriots)||+850||+140|
|Michael Pittman Jr. (Colts)||+1200||+200|
|Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)||+1400||+230|
|Kendrick Bourne (Patriots)||+1400||+240|
|Hunter Henry (Patriots)||+1400||+260|
|Zach Pascal (Colts)||+1600||+290|
|T.Y. Hilton (Colts)||+1600||+290|
|Jakobi Meyers (Patriots)||+1600||+260|
|Nyheim Hines (Colts)||+1800||+350|
|Mo Alie-Cox (Colts)||+1800||+310|
Hunter Henry Needs This One
It’s touchdown scorer time people. For every game NFL game that we watch should have at least one touchdown scorer prop. That’s just good, old-fashioned accountability. The touchdown scorer prop is always on the table and honestly, you never know when your guy will get called.
For those of us that have watched Hunter Henry this season, we know that this guy gets called on all the time.
HUNTER HENRY WITH A TD IN 4 STRAIGHT GAMES!!! pic.twitter.com/ggZmH5xH7V
— Boston Diehards (@Boston_Diehards) October 24, 2021
For awhile there, it looked like Hunter Henry would never have a game again that he failed to score. Beginning October 3rd, he went on a run that saw him dancing in the end zone in six of seven games. He’s was getting red zone targets and he was making them count.
Now it’s been three games since he’s scored but that’s not totally his fault. Last game was played in hurricane-force winds so that doesn’t even count and the game before that he was missed twice on balls that could have easily ended in a score. Only one team in the NFL has given up more receptions to the tight end position this season than Indianapolis so any target near the goal line is likely to end with six points.
- Pick: Hunter Henry to Score a Touchdown (+260); Wager 1 unit to win 2.6 units
- SBD 2021 Touchdown Scorer prop record: 19-34, -4.96 units
John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it.