Donovan Williams drives to the hoop

UNLV forward Donovan Williams (3) works against SMU guard Emmanuel Bandoumel, right, during an NCAA college basketball game in Dallas, Wednesday, Dec. 1, 2021. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

  • UNLV is a 6-point favorite over New Mexico on Tuesday (Jan. 11th) at 11 pm ET in Mountain West play
  • Both programs are looking for their first conference win of the season
  • Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

Tuesday brings another jam packed college hoops slate to sweat, and as a special treat for all the late night owls, the action will continue into the wee hours of the morning. That’s because the Mountain West tilt between New Mexico and UNLV doesn’t tip until 11 pm ET.

New Mexico vs UNLV Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
New Mexico Lobos +202 +6 (-110) O 151 (-110)
UNLV Rebels -250 -6 (-110) U 151 (-110)

Odds as of Jan. 11th at BetMGM.

The home town Rebels opened up as 6-point favorites, in a contest that features a total of 151. UNLV’s Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, NV will play host to the game, while CBSSN will provide the broadcast coverage.

UNLV Rebels Betting Analysis

The Rebels (8-6, 0-1 MWC) haven’t played since New Year’s Day after their past two games versus San Jose State and Air Force were postponed due to COVID issues.

Last time out, they had their four-game winning streak snapped by San Diego State in a 62-55 defeat. Donovan Williams led the offense with 16 points and 3 blocks, but UNLV turned in one of its worst shooting performances of the season.

They shot just 29.7% from the field, which is the lowest of any Aztecs’ opponent this season. They managed only 23 second half points, while committing 12 turnovers, and losing the rebounding battle by 13.

Poor offensive shooting numbers are the norm for the Rebels this season, but they catch a very favorable matchup versus the Lobos defense on Tuesday – more on that later. They’re averaging only 68 points per game, while ranking 278th in effective field goal percentage, and 282nd in three-point efficiency.

Defensively, the numbers are better but not by much. They’re coughing up 67.9 points per contest, and rank 209th in opponent three-point efficiency. They’re 218th at forcing turnovers, and 230th in defensive rebounding percentage. In other words, it’s wheels up for New Mexico’s offense

New Mexico Lobos Betting Analysis

The Lobos (7-8, 0-2 MWC) have lost four of five coming in, including a 90-87 OT heartbreaker last time out versus Utah State. New Mexico buried a triple with three seconds remaining to force overtime, but wound up falling just short.

Jamal Mashburn Jr. led the offense with a career-high 29 points, and 8 assists, while Javonte Johnson splashed a career-high 23 points of his own.

The team shot 44.6% from the field, while knocking down 17 of 34 long range attempts. They won both the rebounding and assist battle, but turned the ball over 17 times.

Defensively, is where the game was lost. They yielded a 55% field goal percentage to the Aggies, allowing them to connect on 66% of their two-point attempts. The Lobos boast one of the worst scoring defenses in the nation, ranking 331st out of 358 teams in opponent points per game. New Mexico is yielding a 50.7% effective field goal percentage to enemy shooters, and rank 294th in defensive rebounding percentage.

Offense is their calling card, and they’re all about volume. They average 78.8 points per contest, the 24th highest mark in the nation, while taking the 22nd most shots in college basketball.

New Mexico vs UNLV Pick

The reason the Lobos get so many shots off is because they play at a breakneck pace. New Mexico ranks 13th in adjusted tempo per KenPom, and 40th in average possession length. They also force their opponents to play fast as well, ranking 63rd in opponent average possession length.

The elevated pace has led to the over being a very profitable bet in their contests. It’s hit in nine of 14 games, including three of five on the road.

UNLV’s offense meanwhile, will benefit from the pace-up spot and the Lobos’ lousy D. The over has actually hit in six of the Rebels last nine games, and I like it in this spot as well.

Pick: Over 151 (-110)

 

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Chris Amberley

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