Patrick Mahomes celebrates versus Raiders

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) motions to the crowd while playing the Las Vegas Raiders during an NFL Professional Football Game Sunday, Nov. 14, 2021, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/John McCoy)

  • Week 11 of the 2021 NFL season continues Sunday, November 21st
  • The SBD Formula is a red-hot 26-17-2 against the spread through 10 weeks
  • Read below for analysis on the Week 11 NFL slate, plus against the spread picks for every game based on the SBD Formula

Week 11 continues on Sunday (November 21st), with a jam packed 13-game slate. Seven of the eight division leaders will be in action, including Dallas and Kansas City, who square off in the marquee matchup.

The Cowboys enter Sunday with an incredible 8-1 record against the spread, while the Chiefs have beaten the number just three times in ten tries.

Week 11 Against the Spread Picks

Matchup Spread SBD Formula Pick
New Orleans Saints vs Philadelphia Eagles PHI (-2) NO (+2)
Washington Football Team vs Carolina Panthers CAR (-3) WAS (+3)
Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills BUF (-7) IND (+7)
Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets MIA (-3.5) MIA (-3.5)
Baltimore Ravens vs Chicago Bears BAL (-5) BAL (-5)
Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns CLE (-11) DET (+11)
Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings GB (-1.5) GB (-1.5)
San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars SF (-6.5) SF (-6.5)
Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans TEN (-10.5) HOU (+10.5)
Cincinnati Bengals vs Las Vegas Raiders CIN (-1) LV (+1)
Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks ARZ (-2) SEA (+2)
Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs KC (-2.5) KC (-2.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Los Angeles Chargers LAC (-6) PIT (+6)

Odds as of Nov. 18th at DraftKings and FanDuel.

That might lead you to believe that Dallas is the no-brainer play, but the SBD Formula, which has been red-hot all season, suggests otherwise.

Cowboys vs Chiefs Pick Against the Spread

Kansas City opened as a 2.5-point favorite, and that’s exactly where the line currently stands. The SBD Formula is calling for a convincing Chiefs victory, and it’s impossible to ignore Patrick Mahomes’ stellar against the spread record when KC is less than a field goal favorite.

The 2018 MVP is 10-2-1 in his career when favored by 2.5 points or less, and is fresh off a victory in that exact same scenario. Last week as a short favorite, the Chiefs shredded Las Vegas for over 500 yards and 41 points. Mahomes threw for over 400 yards and 5 TD, and while the Dallas defense has been impressive so far, there are reasons to be bullish on them this week.

The Cowboys will be missing their top two pass rushers in DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory. If KC wants to attack on the ground, Dallas ranks in 18th in run defense per DVOA, while their pass D is slightly overrated.

Everyone is enamoured with Trevon Diggs’ league leading 8 interceptions, but it’s worth noting he has the 114th best coverage grade per Pro Football Focus among corners.

On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys are going to put up points, but it might not be as easy as some are projecting. The Chiefs are allowing just 15.6 points per game over their last five contests, and have held back-to-back opponents to two scores or less.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (-115), 1 unit

Cardinals vs Seahawks Pick Against the Spread

The Kyler Murray will he or won’t he play saga continues for another week. Arizona is currently a 2-point favorite over Seattle, which suggests he will start, but lots can change between now and Sunday.

If Murray sits for a third straight game, this line will move heavily in the Seahawks’ favor, so it’s wise to lock it in now. Even if Murray does play, his injured ankle is obviously still an issue which will likely limit his mobility, and reduce his effectiveness.

Also working against the Cardinal offense is the absence of DeAndre Hopkins. Nuk still isn’t practicing and looks likely to miss a third straight game. All of a sudden, a three wide receiver set of Christian Kirk, AJ Green and Rondale Moore doesn’t look so imposing.

Seattle meanwhile, threw everyone off its scent with a miserable outing last week in Green Bay. Russell Wilson looked out of sorts in his first game back from injury, but we shouldn’t expect a repeat performance at home.

This is a game the Seahawks need to keep their playoff hopes alive, while Arizona can lose and still remain atop the NFC West. The SBD Formula is calling for a Seattle cover, but an outright win is definitely on the table as well.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks +2 (-110), 1 Unit

Saints vs Eagles Pick Against the Spread

Last, but not least, the SBD Formula is calling for not only a cover, but an outright upset in the New Orleans-Philadelphia game.

The Eagles are currently 2-point favorites, despite not owning a single victory over an above .500 team. Philly has faced four teams ranked 14th or better per DVOA, and have lost each time by an average of 11 points.

New Orleans meanwhile, ranks eighth per DVOA (compared to 15th for the Eagles), and have excelled versus quality opposition.

 

The Saints have beaten two division leaders in Green Bay and Tampa Bay, as well as New England, who is among the fastest rising teams per DVOA. They’re 4-0 against the spread as an underdog this season, and just covered versus Tennessee, the hottest team in the NFL.

Pick: New Orleans Saints +2 (-110), 1 Unit

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Chris Amberley

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