Tua Tagovailoa celebrates after a win

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) gestures at the end of an NFL football game against the New York Giants, Sunday, Dec. 5, 2021, in Miami Gardens, Fla. The Dolphins defeated the Giants 20-9. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

  • Week 15 of the 2021 NFL season continues Saturday, December 18th
  • The SBD Formula is a red-hot 39-24-2 against the spread through 14 weeks
  • Read below for analysis on the Week 15 NFL slate, plus against the spread picks for every game based on the SBD Formula

Week 15 on the NFL schedule continues on Saturday, December 18th, we think. A surge in COVID cases has already caused the league to move three games from this weekend to Monday and Tuesday, but fingers crossed there will be no more changes.

As for the SBD Formula, it just keeps on rolling. Another 3-2 week is in the books, running the SBD Formula’s record to 39-24-2 through 14 weeks.

We’ve nailed five of our last six best bets in this column by trusting the SBD Formula’s projections, and we’ll look to keep the momentum rolling in Week 15.

Week 15 Against the Spread Picks

Matchup Spread SBD Formula Pick
New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts IND (-2.5) IND (-2.5)
Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants DAL (-11) NYG (+11)
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars JAX (-5) HOU (+5)
Tennessee Titans vs Pittsburgh Steelers PIT (-1) PIT (-1)
Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions ARZ (-12.5) ARZ (-12.5)
Carolina Panthers vs Buffalo Bills BUF (-12) BUF (-12)
NY Jets vs Miami Dolphins MIA (-9.5) MIA (-9.5) 
Cincinnai Bengals vs Denver Broncos DEN (-3) CIN (+3)
Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers SF (-9) SF (-9)
Green Bay Packers vs Baltimore Ravens GB (-7) BAL (+7)
New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers TB (-11.5) NO (+11)

Odds as of Dec. 17th at DraftKings and FanDuel.

Our betting card starts in Miami, where the Dolphins put their five-game winning streak on the line versus the New York Jets.

Jets vs Dolphins Pick Against the Spread

Miami is currently a 9.5-point favorite, a number the SBD Formula doesn’t think is nearly high enough. The SBD Formula is predicting a 19-point Dolphins win and an easy cover, and it’s not hard to see why.

The Jets are atrocious on defense, and the offense has been stuck in the mud with Zach Wilson under center. The rookie is missing open throws and making bad decisions, and owns the worst passing grade per Pro Football Focus of any starting quarterback.

Miami on the other hand, is red-hot and fresh off a bye. They’ve allowed an average of only 11 points per game during their winning streak, and should have their way with New York’s 32nd ranked defense per DVOA.

The Dolphins will be missing star rookie receiver Jaylen Waddle, but Tua Tagovailoa will still have plenty of weapons at his disposal. Devante Parker is finally healthy, while Mike Gesicki may be listed as a tight end, but the reality is he’s just an oversized wide receiver. Gesicki should be able to handle all the underneath targets normally reserved for Waddle.

The Jets are a league worst 3-10 against the spread this season, and are fresh off blowout losses versus Philadelphia and New Orleans. Lopsided losses are nothing new for New York however, as they’ve already lost seven games this season by at least 15 points.

Pick: Miami Dolphins -9.5, 1 Unit

Texans vs Jaguars Pick Against the Spread

Jacksonville is a 5-point favorite over Houston on Sunday, a number that is up 2 points since the Jags fired Urban Meyer. The SBD Formula is on the opposite side. It predicts not only a Texans cover, but an outright victory by 8 points.

The line move we’ve seen this week is comical because not even the best offensive skill position players (excluding quarterbacks) are worth more than a point or point and a half. Yes, Meyer was torpedoing Jacksonville, but it’s not like this is an elite team. They rank in the bottom-four in both offensive and defensive DVOA, and have been outscored 57-7 over the past two weeks alone.

The Texans meanwhile, are certainly no juggernaut but we’re not asking them to cover 5 points. We’re just asking Houston to keep this game close. Don’t forget, these two teams met back in Week 1 and the Texans rolled to a 37-21 victory.

Pick: Houston Texans +5, 1 Unit

Titans vs Steelers Pick Against the Spread

Pittsburgh opened up as a 1-point underdog versus Tennessee, but that number didn’t last long. The Steelers are now a 1-point favorite, and the SBD Formula thinks that line should be even higher.

This is a great buy low spot for Pittsburgh at home after they laid an egg in Minnesota on Thursday Night Football. They’re 4-0-1 in their past five outings at Heinz Field, and will get star linebacker T.J. Watt back from a groin injury.

The Titans meanwhile, are running out of bodies on offense. Their top-two talents Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown are out, leaving Julio Jones as their only elite skill position player left. Of course, Jones can’t stay on the field even when he is active, and the lack of star power has hurt this offense.

Tennessee has scored 21 points or less in four straight, failing to reach 14 points in two of those outings. It’s hard to imagine they find much success in this spot against a Steelers team with their backs to the wall, fighting for their playoff lives.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -1, 1 Unit

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Chris Amberley

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