Christian McCaffrey breaks a long run

Dec 11, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) runs for a 38 yard touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the third quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

  • San Francisco is garnering 69% of the spread bets but just 50% of the ATS money in the 49ers vs Seahawks public betting splits
  • 60% of the over/under bets are backing over 43, but those wagers represent only 53% of the total handle
  • See below for a complete breakdown of the 49ers vs Seahawks public betting splits

The stakes are high for tonight’s Thursday Night Football matchup between the 49ers and Seahawks. San Francisco can clinch the NFC West with a victory, which would mark just their second division title in the past 10 years.

Seattle on the other hand, is on the outside of the NFC playoff picture looking in, and a loss would absolutely cripple their postseason hopes.

The Niners opened as a small favorite in the latest installment of this rivalry, but online sportsbooks have been forced to adjust.

That’s because money was flooding in on San Fran early in week per the NFL public betting trends, but the Niners love is starting to dissipate.

49ers vs Seahawks ATS Betting Splits

San Francisco is currently laying 3.5 points, up half a point from the opening line. As of Thursday afternoon, they’re still drawing 69% of the spread wagers, but those bets are accounting for only 50% of the ATS money.

The 49ers easily covered as 8.5 point favorites in their Week 2 meeting, and have covered in four straight outings overall. They’re 8-5 against the spread this year, and 7-2 ATS against NFC opposition.

The Seahawks meanwhile, have failed to cover in four straight outings. Three of those four results have come as favorites, but it’s worth noting they’ve been better ATS as an underdog. Seattle is 5-3 against the spread when getting points this season, compared to 1-3 when laying points.

They’ve absolutely owned San Fran at home historically, covering in 12 of their last 14 meetings per our 49ers vs Seahawks picks. Seattle has also been phenomenal against the spread as home underdogs in the Pete Carrol era. They’re 18-7 ATS in 25 games when catching points, including 15-4 ATS since 2011.

The Niners are fresh off a blowout victory over Tom Brady and the Bucs, which has sent the Brock Purdy hype train into a frenzy. Purdy has played near flawless football since replacing the injured Jimmy Garappolo in Week 13, accounting for two passing TD and a rushing score last week.

So far he’s only seen action at home, and now has to go on the road into a hostile Seattle environment at less than 100%. Purdy is dealing with an oblique injury but will start. Teammate Deebo Samuel won’t be so lucky, as he’s out indefinitely with knee/ankle injuries per the 49ers vs Seahawks injury report.

San Francisco vs Seattle Total Betting Splits

When it comes to divisional games in 2022, the under has been a profitable play. 42 of the 66 divisional matchups have fallen short of the total, while the under is 26-14-1 in outdoor divisional games this season.

The public seems to be ignoring this trend, but it appears the big money bettors are paying attention. Under 43 is currently drawing 53% of all money wagered on the total, off of just 40% of the over/under bets. That mean’s those who bet biggest are banking on a low-scoring affair.

Seattle has been one of the more profitable over teams this season, eclipsing the total in eight of 13 contests. The over has hit in four of their past five outings, but is just 3-3 in six home games.

San Francisco meanwhile, has seen the over cash in five of their past seven games. Coincidentally, that stretch represents Christian McCaffrey’s tenure as a Niner. CMC is fresh off a 119-yard rushing performance against the Bucs, and is featured prominently in the 49ers vs Seahawks player props.

49ers vs Seahawks Moneyline Splits

As far as the moneyline market goes, the Niners are drawing roughly three quarters of the bets. Just 24% of moneyline wagers so far are on the underdog Seahawks, but those bets are making up 32% of the handle.

Seattle is 10-2 straight-up in its last 12 Thursday Night Football tilts. This is essentially a must-win game for them, and historically their home field has been one of the biggest advantages in the NFL.

 

 

The public however, is ignoring that and instead focusing on San Fran’s current form. The 49ers have won six straight, outscoring their opposition by a total of 108 points. They’ve allowed an average of just 10.6 points during their winning streak, and rank number two on defense per DVOA.

 

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Chris Amberley

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