Matt Ryan on field after a game

Sportsbooks have set long odds against the Atlanta Falcons dealing quarterback Matt Ryan
or wide receiver Julio Jones prior to the NFL trade deadline. Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire.

  • Bookmakers are offering long odds on the Falcons moving either QB Matt Ryan or WR Julio Jones prior to the Nov. 3rd trade deadline
  • The odds that Ryan stays in Atlanta have been set at -1200
  • In the case of Jones, the betting line that he remains a Falcon is -1000

Quarterback Matt Ryan and wide receiver Julio Jones have been Atlanta Falcons for a very long time. The Falcons haven’t been very good for a very long time.

That would explain why there’s been plenty of scuttlebutt climbing the NFL grapevine about the Falcons shipping out Ryan, Jones, or even both prior to the Nov. 3rd trade deadline.

Prop bets are out relating to the chances of Jones or Ryan being traded by the Falcons, and the betting lines  are setting the odds strongly against either possibility becoming a reality.

The betting line on Jones favors him not being traded at -1000 odds. In Ryan’s case, the odds are even longer that he’ll be remaining in Atlanta. The Falcons QB is listed at -1200 odds to stay put.

Odds Julio Jones or Matt Ryan Is Traded Before Nov. 3rd Deadline

Player (Team) Won’t Be Traded Odds Will Be Traded Odds
Julio Jones (Falcons) -1000 +550
Matt Ryan (Falcons) -1200 +750

Odds taken Oct. 21st.

Atlanta is off to a 1-5 start this season. The Falcons went 7-9 in both 2018 and 2019.

It’s a Falcons Mess

Following an 0-5 start in Atlanta, the departures began with GM Thomas Dimitroff and head coach Dan Quinn.

There’s an old saying about how it’s easier to get rid of one coach than 53 players. In a salary-cap world, this is an even more accurate truth.

Ryan and Jones are both under contract through the 2023 season, so any attempt at moving them will see some severe salary-cap dead weight coming to bear upon the Falcons.

Jones signed a three-year deal prior to this season that will pay him $66 million. Meanwhile, Ryan is in the midst of a five-year pact worth $150 million. According to SportRac, teams would be looking at a cap hit of $40.9 million for Ryan in 2021.

The Falcons would also be on the hook for a nasty chunk of dead-cap space. Reportedly, Ryan’s departure would cost them in the neighborhood of $42 million. The cap hit for moving Jones would be around $23 million.

Offseason Move More Likely

Big-ticket NFL trades generally unfold in the offseason. The 2021 cap ceiling will be certain by then.

That being said, it’s not like there aren’t plenty of NFL teams that couldn’t use a seven-time All-Pro wideout. Jones would be a splendid fit with the Raiders. The Colts, Patriots, Eagles and Packers all could use help at receiver.

Meanwhile, imagine Ryan suddenly showing up in Dallas to replace the injured Dak Prescott?

What the Falcons might hope to realize from these deals is another matter. When Green Bay dealt Brett Favre to the Jets in 2008, all the Packers got out of it was a third-round draft pick. The Texans moved Pro Bowl WR DeAndre Hopkins and a fourth-rounder to the Cardinals earlier this year and got running back David Johnson and second- and fourth-round picks in return.

Both those deals were offseason acquisitions. If Ryan or Jones are moved, it won’t be until then.

No is the play here in both instances, which means unless you’re sitting on a massive wad of cash you don’t mind risking, there really isn’t a play at all.

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