Now that Bill O’Brien has been fired by the Housston Texans, Adam Gase of the New York Jets is the +185 favorite to be the next NFL head coach fired. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)

  • Bill O’Brien was fired Monday by the 0-4 Houston Texans, the first NFL head coach to be dismissed this season
  • A prop wager is offering +185 odds that Adam Gase of the 0-4 New York Jets will be the next NFL head coach to lose his job
  • See odds and analysis on who will be the next head coach fired in the 2020-21 NFL season

Those who backed Bill O’Brien to be the first NFL head coach to head for the unemployment line this season collected a tidy sum for that foresight. O’Brien was the fourth betting choice in the previous update of this ongoing prop wager at +900.

Now the question turns, as it always does in the coaching profession, to who’s next?

The three guys given shorter odds last week than O’Brien can probably still sense the figurative guillotine dangling over their necks.

Adam Gase of the 0-4 New York Jets has overtaken Dan Quinn to reign as the +185 chalk in this betting market. Quinn, whose Falcons are also 0-4, shouldn’t feel good about that. He’s the second betting choice at +220.

Matt Patricia of the Detroit Lions is hot on their heels to be the next coach sent home and cooled out at +350.

Odds on Next NFL Coach to be Fired

Coach (Team) Odds
Adam Gase (Jets) +185
Dan Quinn (Falcons) +220
Matt Patricia (Lions) +350
Doug Marrone (Jaguars) +1500
Anthony Lynn (Chargers) +1500
Vic Fangio (Broncos) +1800
Mike Zimmer (Vikings) +2500
Matt Nagy (Bears) +3000
Kevin Stefanski (Browns) +6000
Mike Tomlin (Steelers) +6000
Zac Taylor (Bengals) +6000
Bruce Arians (Buccaneers) +7000
Brian Flores (Dolphins) +8000
Doug Pederson (Eagles) +8000
Joe Judge (Giants) +8000
Ron Rivera (Washington) +8000
Andy Reid (Chiefs) +8500
Bill Belichick (Patriots) +8500
Frank Reich (Colts) +8500
John Harbaugh (Ravens) +8500
Jon Gruden (Raiders) +8500
Kliff Kingsbury (Cardinals) +8500
Matt LaFleur (Packers) +8500
Mike McCarthy (Cowboys) +8500
Pete Carroll (Seahawks) +8500
Sean Payton (Saints) +8500
Matt Rhule (Panthers) +10000
Mike Vrabel (Titans) +10000
Sean McDermott (Bills) +10000
Sean McVay (Rams) +10000
Kyle Shanahan (49ers) +15000

Odds as of Oct. 6th

Five NFL head coaches were fired during the 2019 season.

O’Brien Ruled Out

Coming off consecutive AFC South titles, O’Brien didn’t seem to be in imminent danger. That being said, as coaches are prone to point out, they work in a results-driven business, and as a result of driving the Texans to the bottom of the division, O’Brien was issued his walking papers.

As Houston’s coach-GM, a dismal 0-4 start, coupled with a bizarre decision to trade All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for running back David Johnson, sealed O’Brien’s fate.

Perhaps Texans CEO Cal McNair thought it best to remove O’Brien before he decided to deal quarterback Deshaun Watson to the Jets for Frank Gore.

Crystal Ball Gase

You wonder what Jets management needs to see – or is that not see – in order to move on from Gase? He’s supposedly a QB guru and yet 2018 first-round pick Sam Darnold has regressed under Gase’s tutelage.

With a long week before Sunday’s game against the Arizona Cardinals, if the Jets were ready to move on from Gase, this was a prime opportunity to do so.

ESPN NFL insider John Clayton suggested this week that he’d be surprised if Gase survives the season.

Dan’s Not The Man

There’s an old axiom about firing someone else before they figure out it’s your fault. That’s why Quinn goes through coordinators like Donald Trump goes through cabinet secretaries.

This time though, he needs to pay the piper. The Falcons never recovered from blowing a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl 51. That’s on the coach.

The Lions Sleep

Matt Patricia still being on the job is reminiscent of the infamous remark once uttered by former Lions coach Darryl Rogers. “What does a coach have to do around here to get fired?” Rogers asked rhetorically.

The Lions are 10-25-1 under Patricia. In his last six losses, the team has blown double-digit point leads. No other NFL coach ever did that.

The Verdict

That all three of these men are still gainfully employed is beyond the pale. When you get down to the nitty-gritty, it’s still hard to case your gaze past Gase.

New York is a major market. The Lions and Falcons have shown patience in the past with woeful coaches.

The Big Apple doesn’t do patient. Careers end there in a New York minute.

Pick: Adam Gase (+185)

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