Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) scrambles against the Detroit Lions during an NFL football game, Sunday, Jan. 9, 2022, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)
- Super Bowl 56 will be played Sunday, February 13th, 2022 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA
- Aaron Rodgers is favored to win Super Bowl MVP, closely followed by Patrick Mahomes
- See Super Bowl MVP history, trends, analysis and best bet here
As the NFL playoffs are set to begin this weekend, the Super Bowl odds suggest that the top-two teams most likely to win the Lombardi Trophy are the Green Bay Packers (+380) and the Kansas City Chiefs (+450). Of course, they first have to get there, with the Pack having an easier road considering they have a first round bye. The Chiefs NFL odds, meanwhile, are lower than the Tennessee Titans, despite the latter securing the first round bye in the AFC.
With Aaron Rodgers seemingly on his way to back-to-back regular season MVP awards, it stands to reason that he would be favorite to also win the MVP in the big dance. Patrick Mahomes has made two straight Super Bowls with the Chiefs, so his odds are low to take home the hardware also. Do quarterbacks typically dominate this award or have other positions won it in recent years? Read on to find out.
You can find the NFL playoff bracket to see which teams are seeded where and their potential road to Super Bowl LVI.
Super Bowl 56 Player Odds
|Aaron Rodgers (GB)||+450|
|Patrick Mahomes (KC)||+500|
|Tom Brady (TB)||+850|
|Josh Allen (BUF)||+850|
|Dak Prescott (DAL)||+1400|
|Ryan Tannehill (TEN)||+1400|
|Matthew Stafford (LAR)||+1400|
|Joe Burrow (CIN)||+2000|
|Derrick Henry (TEN)||+2500|
|Mac Jones (NE)||+2800|
|Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)||+3000|
|Kyler Murray (ARI)||+3500|
|Davante Adams (GB)||+3500|
|Tyreek Hill (KC)||+5000|
|Travis Kelce (KC)||+5000|
|Derek Carr (LV)||+8000|
|Cooper Kupp (LAR)||+8000|
|Aaron Jones (GB)||+8000|
|Rob Gronkowski (TB)||+8000|
|Deebo Samuel (SF)||+8000|
|A.J. Brown (TEN)||+10000|
|Aaron Donald (LAR)||+10000|
|Stefon Diggs (BUF)||+10000|
|Mike Evans (TB)||+10000|
|Leonard Fournette (TB)||+10000|
|Jaire Alexander (GB)||+10000|
|Jalen Hurts (PHI)||+10000|
|Damien Harris (NE)||+10000|
Odds as of January 14th at DraftKings
The top-eight players with the shortest odds to win the MVP award are all quarterbacks, followed by the first non-QB in Titans running back Derrick Henry.
Top Two Favorites On The Board
That Aaron Rodgers is the favorite to win Super Bowl MVP award after what will likely be his second straight (and fourth overall), regular season MVP trophy, is hardly surprising. His Packers, however, have only been to one Super Bowl under his watch, as he’s lost four of five career NFC Championship games, including the last two years.
No regular season MVP champ has won the Super Bowl MVP in the same season since Kurt Warner way back in 1999. There’s only been six players total to double dip in the same campaign.
Aaron Rodgers got 34 votes to 16 for Tom Brady for All-Pro. It’s the same voters so Rodgers essentially just won MVP.
— Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal) January 14, 2022
Given that he’s only been to one Super Bowl, his odds of +450 aren’t super enticing, when considering the history of the award as well. Patrick Mahomes sits just behind him at +500, and he’s been to back-to-back Super Bowls, winning one of them.
This will be postseason start no. 9️⃣ for Patrick Mahomes, the second-most for any QB under 27 in the Super Bowl Era 🤯 pic.twitter.com/4GXhhbu1V6
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 13, 2022
Even though no team has made it three straight Super Bowls since the Bills did it four years in a row in the 90’s, Mahomes and the Chiefs won nine of their last ten games and they’re easier to trust than the Pack in the last two seasons.
Looking For Value
If you’re looking to place a wager on a non-quarterback to take the award, you might be out of luck. Eleven of the last 15 winners have been signal callers. Much like the NFL MVP odds tend to favor QB’s, it’s the same for the Super Bowl. Four of the last five winners have been pivots, with the exception being Julian Edelman in Super Bowl LIII, where there was just one touchdown scored all game.
Last Five Super Bowl MVP Winners
|2021||Tom Brady (TB)|
|2020||Patrick Mahomes (KC)|
|2019||Julian Edelman (NE)|
|2018||Nick Foles (PHI)|
|2017||Tom Brady (NE)|
When perusing the list looking for value, there’s an obvious name that stands out, and that is, of course, Tom Brady at +850. Considering he’s won seven chips in his career, and has been named SB MVP five times, he very well could do it yet again in his quest to defeat father time.
The only pushback to that is he’s now without the services of Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, with the former injured and the latter released, but Tommy has won Super Bowls with less skilled position talent around him than he has in Tampa Bay right now.
- The Pick: Tom Brady (+850)
Michael “Hound Dog” Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statistician for the SC with Jay Onrait Show. He has worked at TSN for over 13 years, where he’s been featured on Sportscentre, That’s Hockey, That’s Hockey 2Nite, The Masters preview shows, and several more.