How many goals will Harry Kane score this season? Photo by @xGPhilosophy (Twitter).
- The 2020-21 Premier League season gets underway this weekend
- There will be fierce competition for the Golden Boot – odds are available on over/under goal totals for some of the league’s biggest name strikers
- Featuring Harry Kane, Timo Werner and Sergio Aguero, we’ve taken a look at the best bets in the goal totals market ahead of the new campaign
There’s serious attacking talent in the Premier League this season. More than a handful of forwards will have realistic ambitions of passing the 20-goal mark in 2020-21 and some will be dreaming of moving towards the big three-zero.
While the Golden Boot is almost impossible to call, our focus for this piece is on individual goal totals, as provided by DraftKings.
The table below shows the odds for five players (with Harry Kane featuring twice). Let’s take a look at the best bets among this group.
Premier League Goal Total Odds
|Team||Over Odds||Under Odds At DraftKings|
|Harry Kane||O 18.5 (-134)||U 18.5 (-106)|
|Harry Kane||O 14.5 (-305)||U 14.5 (+200)|
|Mohamed Salah||O 20.5 (+100)||U 20.5 (-139)|
|Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang||O 19.5 (+110)||U 19.5 (-155)|
|Sergio Aguero||O 18.5 (-118)||U 18.5 (-118)|
|Timo Werner||O 14.5 (-167)||U 14.5 (+120)|
Odds taken September 7.
Injuries Key For Kane
Harry Kane scored 18 last season in 29 starts and 17 the year before in 27 starts. The matches missed have been the story for Kane in recent years, who has edged towards the injury prone category. Rushed back from absences and overworked, there were signs of decline in Kane’s game. He had lost pace, he was looking heavy-footed all too often. After the lengthy mid-season hiatus, Kane came back looking something close to his best self. If Spurs can get that version of Kane, if they can keep him fit, he will cruise past the 18.5 upper total.
This will be a test of Jose Mourinho. Mourinho doesn’t rest players often, and with limited options to replace Kane’s role as a lone center forward, the former Real Madrid manager might over-stretch the England striker. Kane needs matches off – more injuries are inevitable if he is asked to start every single match.
Feeling sharp 🎯
— Harry Kane (@HKane) September 3, 2020
The five goals in the last three matches of the 2019-20 season showed what Kane can be on a Mourinho team. Playing further up the field, Kane was able to make runs behind the defense and link up play when players joined him rather than dropping deep to get the ball. He was the focal point of all Spurs’ attacking play, a role which will see him get plenty of shots off in 2020-21 after a couple of down years in that department.
Backing the over on 14.5 looks a surefire bet barring a long-term injury. There’s value in the over at 18.5, too, though it requires a lot of faith in Mourinho’s use of his star man.
Pick: Over 18.5 goals (-134)
Rotation Hurts Aguero’s Chances
Sergio Aguero is 32 years old. Injuries have been a concern even throughout his prime years, and Manchester City will be extra cautious with his workload as he heads into his mid-30’s. The Argentine striker is still a goal machine (he got 16 goals in 18 league starts last season), but this market is as much about availability as clinical finishing.
Gabriel Jesus hit form in Aguero’s absence towards the end of last season. City will, once again, be hoping for a deep Champions League run. Aguero will be rotated in and out of the Premier League XI, which could make it challenging to reach the 19-goal mark even if he avoids injury.
— Sergio Kun Aguero (@aguerosergiokun) August 31, 2020
Picking the over or under here is a bet on Aguero’s availability and Pep Guardiola’s squad management. If you fancy him to start in 28 or more matches, the ‘over’ is surely the better bet, but his injury history and Guardiola’s rotation makes the ‘under’ look more appealing.
Pick: Under 18.5 goals (-118)
Werner For The Over?
Chelsea have been the Premier League’s big spenders this off-season. Hakim Ziyech, Kai Havertz and Timo Werner join an attack which ranked second in expected goals last season. Christian Pulisic was arguably the best player in the league after the restart. Frank Lampard’s attacking options are as exciting as any in Europe, and German international Werner will be a key part of that.
— Timo Werner (@TimoWerner) September 4, 2020
Werner looks set to start the season as the central striker, though he could get minutes on the left with Tammy Abraham or Olivier Giroud playing down the middle. With electric pace, underrated close control, Werner is going to cause all sorts of problems for opposition defenses. He has become one of the world’s best finishers, scoring 34 goals in all competitions for Leipzig last season.
Rotation is unlikely to be a massive issue for Werner. Lampard has the players to make changes, but the German will be an integral part of the team, whether playing on the flank or as the main striker. With Ziyech, Pulisic and Havertz, there will be plenty of chances created.
Few have concerns about this Chelsea team in attack. They are going to score a lot of goals – the line seems low for Werner at 14.5
Pick: Over 14.5 total goals (-167)
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.