Picks for Win, Place & Show

Kentucky Derby hopeful, Just a Touch, gallops on the track at Churchill Downs. Special to the Courier Journal by Pat McDonogh. April 20, 2024

• Did you want to bet a horse to finish well in the Kentucky Derby but don’t know if they’ll win?
• While most eyes are focused on the winner, you can also find value on who will finish in the top 2 (place) or top 3 (show)
• Read below for the Kentucky Derby win, place, and show odds, picks, and predictions

America’s most popular race, the Kentucky Derby, takes place this Saturday.  The main event, featuring 20 horses, will start at roughly 6:57 pm ET at Churchill Downs.

There are many different types of bets you can place on the Kentucky Derby. If you are betting on horse racing for the first time or just want a refresher, be sure to check out our horse racing guides to learn how to bet on the Kentucky Derby. Some of the most popular wagers are betting on a horse to win, place, or show.

Placing a win bet is simple, and it is exactly what it sounds like. Pick the horse you think will win the Kentucky Derby, and your ticket will cash if that horse wins the race. Place and show bets allow for a little more flexibility. Place bets allow the horse you choose to finish in first place or second, then show bets pay out if your horse finishes in the top three. Show bets are more likely to win so the odds are not as lucrative as win or place bets.

Best Bet to Win the Kentucky Derby

When picking a Kentucky Derby winner, there are a lot of different variables that bettors can look at. Past race results, post position, and pedigree are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to handicapping horse racing.

Fierceness and Sierra Leone have the two best odds to win the Kentucky Derby in 2024, and rightfully so. Fierceness has the fastest speed out of all the horses at 110 and has won two of his last three races. Sierra Leone on the other hand has been in four races and has three of the four. The only loss was at the 2023 Remsen on a muddy track where Sierra Leone finished in second place.

It is certainly understandable why you would want to bet on either of the top two horses to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby. If everything goes the way it is supposed to go then either Fierceness or Sierra Leone will be the winner, but that does not always happen, so I am going to look in another direction when picking my Kentucky Derby winner.

At +1000, Just A Touch offers bettors some value. He has only been in three races, but he has finishes of first, second, and second and looked very strong in both races where he was the runner-up. Last year’s winner, Mage, also only had three starts before the Kentucky Derby, so the inexperience can be overcome. While Fierceness has the top speed out of all the contestants, Just A Touch has the fastest average speed of 102. Just A Touch also has championship pedigree being sired by Justify, who is the most recent Triple Crown winner.

Best Kentucky Derby Win Bet: Just A Touch (+1000)

Kentucky Derby Place Bet Prediction

If Just A Touch wins, I do not believe the top two favorites will be far behind. Because of this, when betting on which horse will come in first or second, both Fierceness and Sierra Leone offer some value. It just comes down to which horse you like more.

I am going to give the edge to Sierra Leone. Sierra Leone has been about as consistent as you can find when it comes to placing. In his four starts, he has finished in first or second every time, and the Kentucky Derby should be no different. Sierra Leone also boasts a higher average speed than Fiercenss. Only Just A Touch and Sierra Leone are faster on average than the favorite.

Sierra Leone received the No. 2 post position, which is not an ideal spot, but the horse has the legs and the speed to make up ground if he falls behind early. Sierra Leone’s consistency will continue in the most exciting two minutes in sports.

Best Kentucky Derby Place Bet: Sierra Leone

Kentucky Derby Show Bet Prediction

When Fierceness is on, he is on, but when he is not running at his best, he does not do well. So while he could definitely finish in the top three, if he does not win, I have a hard time seeing him finish third, so there is not much value there.

Instead, when looking for a show bet, it is good to look at a Kentucky Derby longshot. If there is a longshot that you like, betting them to show gives you some more flexibility. One of my favorite longshots for the 2024 Kentucky Derby is Just Steel. Just Steel has a lot of experience with 11 races under his belt, including two wins at Churchill Downs.

Just Steel is fresh off an impressive second-place finish at the Arkansas Derby, losing to Muth, who would be a top contender if he was in the Kentucky Derby this year. Just Steel is worth a look to finish in the top three of this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Best Kentucky Derby Show Bet: Just Steel

Odds to Win 2024 Kentucky Derby

The Kentucky Derby odds list Fierceness as the 5/2 favorite to win in 2024. Sierra Leone is not far behind with +300 odds. A $20 wager on Fierceness to win would result in a payout of $70.

Odds at TwinSpires as of May 3, 2024.

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