The early absentee ballot data looks positive for the challenger

The recent spate of good national and state polls for Joe Biden has led to something of a turnaround in the betting. After a long period when the Trump position got a better and better things seemed to have changed with punters now more ready to risk their cash on a Biden victory.

In some states the absentee ballot process has begun and what we are seeing is many more people asking to vote in this way compared with last time. In North Carolina, a key target for the Democrats, the early indications are good for the party that is trying to unseat Trump. This is from CBS News.

As of September 2, 618,842 absentee ballots had been requested for the November election in the state. By comparison, at this time in 2016, just 37,576 voters had asked for mail-in ballots. In 2020, 326,281 of those requests — more than 52% — have come from registered Democrats..Just 98,6000 have been requested by Republicans, or less than 16%. Democrats have outpaced Republicans in absentee ballot requests in all but two counties across the state. Another 192,036 unaffiliated voters — 31% — have also requested absentee ballots.

That’s a huge uplift on WH2016 and is probably indicative of the higher turnout though it is early days.

My big bets are laying Trump on the main market and betting on Biden in Texas where the odds look good.

Mike Smithson



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