My son, Robert, posted this comment on the last thread which nearly sums up the dangers and I think deserves greater prominence. He wrote:

1.It’s bad for Northern Ireland
Boris Johnson can’t walk back on his plans to abrogate now, without causing an enormous problem with the Unionist community in Northern Ireland. It’s creating another “stabbed in the back” myth.

On the other hand, if you do abrogate, and we walk away from the Withdrawal Agreement, then it will create equally negative problems with the Nationalist community. Appeasing the Unionist community will be seen as more important than the Good Friday agreement.

The combination of these two factors makes a return to violence in the province more likely.

2. It’s bad for our moral authority in the world
We can’t say to China, “hey! respect the treaty you signed over Hong Kong”. Or we can, but it will look pretty hypocritical.

3. It isn’t good for future trade agreements
While it won’t torpedo free trade deals with the likes of Japan, we will probably find that we’ll be subject to more onerous conditions, and the remit of ISDS tribunals will be broader. (Who’s to say that a UK government doesn’t sign a free trade deal with Japan, and then introduce a requirement that all cars sold in the UK must be individually inspected. And sadly there are 100 inspectors for British made cars, but only one for Japanese?)

4. It creates a situation where the UK really does have to either fold or to take No Deal
And this happens at a time when the UK has (again) wasted its time in failing to recreate the EU’s existing trading agreements.”

What will be really interesting will be the reaction of Tory MPs many of whom have become less enamored with their leader in recent months.

Mike Smithson



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