If this continues Trump is out

One of the striking features of the pattern of current Trump v Biden polling is how much it looks like the main polling for the Midterms in 2018. Just like that for the White House race now the Democratic lead in generic congressional polling followed a pretty constant 7-8% in the polling averages. As it turned out the 2018 surveys undershot the Dem final total by more than one point.

The November 2018 Midterms were Trump’s first electoral test since winning WH2016 and leading commentators and a large part of the media declared that this was a test of Trump’s popularity and perhaps an indicator of how he would perform in this coming election.

What was really striking then was the high turnout which at 50%+ was the largest in a midterm election since universal suffrage nearly a century beforehand. Love him or loathe him Trump certainly gets more Americans interested in politics.

The problem here for the President is that his continued occupancy of the White House is the number one issue and people will be voting on whether they want him to stay or not. Biden’s function is as the “Non-Trump”. The data from the previous election very much matches the current polls – eight percent more voters want him gone than want him to stay.

Things could change between now and November 3rd but we need to remember that this time there will be no “Stop Hillary” element. Biden, at 77, might be old but he doesn’t arouse the same negatives.

My money remains on Biden.

Mike Smithson



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