Drop back in trip to suit
Fauvette is the obvious filly dropping back in trip to focus on in this race given how well she travelled over seven furlongs at Newmarket last time but the market hasn’t missed her whereas another filly dropping back to six for the first time since her two-year-old season looks to have been underestimated by the market.
Posh Girl made her debut over this C&D in October last year and she showed plenty of greenness through the first half of the race before eventually switching on in the final two furlongs and making some late headway.
She raced too keenly early on over the same trip at Doncaster on her only other run at two and it was surprising that she was stepped up to a mile for her return as a three-year-old at Newmarket.
She was held up and could never get competitive that day but she did show more over the same C&D next time on handicap debut when racing prominently for a long way. She was in front two furlongs out before weakening quickly in the final furlong and finishing sixth.
Posh Girl was dropped back to seven furlongs at Yarmouth for her latest start and was dropped out in last in a steadily run race. She made headway on the near side with three furlongs to go and challenged the leaders two furlongs out before being unable to go with the front pair late on.
The steady pace was against her that day and I think she will be far more suited by a well-run six furlongs which she’s likely to get today with many front runners or prominent racers in the field.
It might just be that she travels well and doesn’t deliver much under pressure but she found enough on debut to think that might not be the case and any 13/2 or bigger appeals.
Return to a straight track will suit
Bella Notte hung right when racing at Lingfield as a two-year-old and she repeated the trick on her return to that track last time and finished last of six so the return to a straight track is a positive for her chance today and I think she has a better chance of beating the odds-on favourite, Melody King, than the market suggests.
The testing ground at Sandown has been responsible for four of the five non runners but such conditions could play in the favour of Bella Notte who ran well on two occasions on heavy ground as a two-year-old.
She was a shade unlucky in the first of those two races at Yarmouth when her run was blocked two furlongs out and she then had to be switched before finishing strongly and being beaten a neck into second.
On the second of them at Newbury, she raced a bit keenly and awkwardly early on. She made her effort away from the near side rail where the first two home raced and she could never challenge the winner while running on into third.
Bella Notte has continued to run well in defeat this season, particularly on her first start of the season over six furlongs at Salisbury. She travelled strongly tracking the leader through the first half of the race and went to the front travelling well with two furlongs to go. Driven along, she went a couple of lengths clear with a furlong to go but was picked off by her stablemate, Theotherside, late on and was beaten a neck.
The way that Bella Notte travelled in that race suggests that she could cope with the drop back to a stiff five furlongs on testing ground and this race is likely to be well-run with Thegreyvtrain still in the field.
It may that turn that this isn’t the case and she will need a return to a straight six furlongs to show her best or Melody King might continue his revival with the stiff five furlongs looking ideal for him but I think Bella Notte has the potential for further improvement and any 3/1 or bigger appeals.