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Jul 30, 2022; Pasadena California, USA; Real Madrid midfielder Toni Kroos (8) during an international friendly against Juventus at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
- Real Madrid and Bayern Munich meet in the second leg of their 2024 Champions League semifinal on Wednesday
- The teams drew 2-2 in Munich last week
- Below, see the Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich odds and predictions on May 8
After Borussia Dortmund stunned PSG with a 1-0 away win (2-0 aggregate) to punch their ticket to the 2024 Champions League final on June 1 at Wembley Stadium in London, both Real Madrid and Bayern Munich will look to follow suit when they meet in the second leg of their semifinal tie at the Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid on Wednesday, May 8 (3:00 pm ET).
Madrid and Bayern drew 2-2 in Germany a week ago, leaving everything to play for in today’s second leg in Spain. The Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich odds show the home team as a -110 favorite to win in regular time and a heavy -230 favorite to advance to the final. Bayern is +275 to win in regular time and +180 to qualify, while a second straight regular-time draw is priced at +290.
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline | To Qualify |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | -110 | -230 |
| Bayern Munich | +275 | +180 |
| Draw | +290 | N/A |
At -110, Real Madrid has a 52.38% implied win probability to win in regular time. Their -230 odds to qualify carry a 69.70% implied probability. At +275, Bayern has just a 26.67% implied win probability in regular time, while their +180 odds to advance to the final give them a 35.71% implied win probability.
Odds as of May 8 at DraftKings. Claim this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Champions League today.
Draw a Fair Result in First Leg
The teams’ thrilling 2-2 draw in the first leg last week was the right result, based on the overall statistics. Bayern carried slightly more possession (52-48%), had more shots (13-6), and put more shots on target (7-5) but Madrid generated the more-dangerous chances and forced Bayern into attack mode with a strike in the 24th minute from Vinicius Junior off a slick feed from Toni Kroos.
Você vê um lance destes – Lançamento do Kroos e gol do Vinícius Júnior – e a vontade é nunca mais assistir futebol brasileiro.
É outro esporte. pic.twitter.com/deNUYbuFd9
— Rafael Gloves (@rafaelgloves) April 30, 2024
Bayern would equalize on a 53rd-minute goal from Leroy Sane and take the lead just four minutes later on a Harry Kane penalty before Vinicius tied the game from the spot in the 83rd minute.
Bayern finished the first leg with 1.71 expected goals for, narrowly ahead of Real Madrid at 1.66.
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich Projected Lineups
| Real Madrid | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|
| Andriy Lunin (GK) | Manuel Neuer (GK) |
| Daniel Carvajal (RB) | Joshua Kimmich (RB) |
| Antonio Rudiger (CB) | Matthijs de Ligt (CB) |
| Nacho Fernandez (CB) | Eric Dier (CB) |
| Ferland Mendy (LB) | Noussair Mazraoui (LB) |
| Aurelien Tchouameni (DMF) | Konrad Laimer (MF) |
| Toni Kroos (LMF) | Leon Goretzka (LMF) |
| Federico Valverde (RMF) | Jamal Musiala (LW) |
| Jude Bellingham (AMF) | Thomas Muller (SS) |
| Rodrygo (CF) | Leroy Sane (RW) |
| Vinicius Junior (CF) | Harry Kane (STR) |
The lineups for the second leg will be similar to the first leg. On the Madrid side, Danny Carvajal, who missed the first leg due to yellow cards, draws back into the lineup in place of Lucas Vazquez. For Bayern, Matthijs de Ligt returns from a knee injury and will take over from Min-Jae Kim at center-back.
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich Prediction
Real Madrid has posted a 15-2-0 record in home matches during La Liga play this season and went 3-0 at home in Champions League group play. They only managed home draws in the round of 16 (1-1 vs Leipzig) and quarterfinals (3-3 vs Man City), though, and were somewhat lucky to do so. The xGF in those two draws, combined, were 1.99 to .1.65 in favor of the visitors.
Compared to the lofty expectations that accompany Bayern every season, the team has struggled in away matches this season. Bayern is just 9-2-5 away (29 points). If they don’t get at least a point from their last match at Hoffenheim, it will be the first time since 2010-11 that they failed to record at least 30 points in away matches. In their quarterfinal clash with Arsenal, Bayern certainly looked like the second-best side at the Emirates, though managed a 2-2 draw.
On the whole, I expect a more cagey affair than the first leg, and another fairly evenly matched game, which puts the best value on the regular-time draw at +275.
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich picks:
- First half under 1.5 goals (-166) at FanDuel
- Draw (+275) at DraftKings
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.