Screenshot 2022 12 14 10.18.20
Opinium Sept 23rd 2022

The incredible thing is that this poll came out less than three months ago and an enormous amount has happened in the intervening period. The same poll had Truss and Starmer level pegging on the “Best PM” question.

One of my 2022 bets that did not work out was on the Tories getting a poll lead in September. My reasoning was that the new leader would get something of a honeymoon and that would be reflected in the voting intention polls.

Alas that did not happen and as we all know things started to collapse for the Tories after the first and only budget statement from the new Truss government.

Can Sunak take his party back to those September 2022 levels and indeed could we start to seriously consider a time when the Tories are back in the lead again? It is looking pretty certain that this won’t happen in 2022. The New Year could be different though Sunak doesn’t appear to have had a honeymoon.

Mike Smithson



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